2012-09-03 14:12:40 -
Fast Market Research recommends "Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
Through 2012 the key factor affecting the wider Egyptian economy, and the ports and shipping sector, is political uncertainty. After the collapse of the Mubarak regime in early 2011 there are still many question marks over the future of the country. BMI believes Egypt is a country that combines strong medium- to long-term growth potential with significant short-term risks. Looking specifically at the ports and shipping sector, increasing militancy by dock workers has been an important issue. The latest facility to be hit by strikes was Sokhna, which had a 10-day strike in Q212. However, with private consumption expected to shore up economic growth over the coming year, containerised imports could see strong support.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451258_egypt_shipping_report_q4_2012.aspx
BMI
will continue to monitor developments at the facilities. In the absence of monthly throughput data, our forecasts are being informed by our macroeconomic outlook and any news stories relating to industrial actions. Most of our forecasts for 2012 have been revised down since last quarter on this basis, though we are still projecting growth, in contrast to 2011 when most Egyptian ports recorded falls in their handling volumes. The country continues to benefit from the Suez Canal, and investments in East Port Said, the transhipment hub adjoining the waterway, will facilitate continued growth in its throughput.
Headline Industry Data
* 2012 total tonnage throughput at Dekheila is forecast to grow by 2.1% to 24.33mn tonnes, and to average 3.7% per annum to 2016.
* 2012 East Port Said container throughput growth forecast at 6.2% to reach 3.40mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and to average 9.0% to 2016.
* 2012 Egyptian trade real growth forecast at 3.9%, and to average 6.6% over the medium term.
Key Industry Trends
SCCT Expansion To Support Growth
BMI believes that the completion of the expansion of the container terminal at Egypt's East Port Said facility will offer upside risk to our medium-term growth forecasts for the port. Although we are not overly optimistic with regards to Egyptian demand for container shipping over the period, the port's proximity to the Suez Canal ensures it receives considerable transhipment business, which East Port Said hopes to increase.
Suez Canal Generates US$10mn Revenue In One Day
The Suez Canal generated US$10mn in revenue in a single day after Mohamed Morsy was declared winner of Egypt's presidential election in June, according to a Suez Canal Authority official. The official said that 37 vessels had traversed the canal, with 15 vessels in a northern convoy (carrying 1mn tonnes) arriving from the Mediterranean and 22 vessels in a southern convoy (carrying 1.3mn tonnes) arriving from the Red Sea.
Hapag-Lloyd To Offer ADX Service Between Adriatic And Egypt
German sea carrier Hapag-Lloyd has launched a new Adriatic Express Service (ADX) linking Damietta and Port Said in Egypt to Koper and Venice in the Adriatic. Starting on May 1 2012, two 1,200TEU vessels are deployed for the weekly rotation, which starts and finishes at Damietta, and includes calls at Rijeka and Ancona.
Key Risks to Outlook
The main risks to our forecasts for Egyptian ports are primarily to the downside. Should the country be wracked by another wave of political unrest, which remains distinctly possible at this stage, volumes through Egyptian ports could see a contraction like that experienced in most facilities in 2011. Additionally, any further industrial actions by workers could likewise affect throughput; Sokhna was the latest Egyptian facility to be struck by strikes, with a 10-day action in Q212.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Shipping SWOT
- Egypt Political SWOT
- Egypt Economic SWOT
- Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview - Container Shipping
- More Positive Box Outlook In H212
- Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens
- Concerted Rate Push Must Continue
- Bunker Price Still A Worry
- 2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation
- Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping
- Overcapacity A Long Term Problem
- Bankruptcies To Continue
- Vale's Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown
- Protectionism Trend Takes Off
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude
- Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed
- Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates
- Table: BMI's Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl)
- Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping
- Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators
- Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs
- Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects
- Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Egypt Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Forecast
- East Port Said
- Port Of El Dekheila
- Table: Major Port Data. 2008-2016
- Trade
- Table: Trade Overview. 2008-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- APL
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
Egypt Demographic Outlook
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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