2013-01-07 06:03:21 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "France Infrastructure Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

BMI View: We have revised down our estimate for the French construction industry in 2012, from an earlier forecast of 1.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth to a more cautious estimate of 0.6%. We remain positive about relatively stronger growth during the remainder of our forecast period - with growth forecast to average 1.0% y-o-y (in real terms) between 2013 and 2021; however, we highlight that the protracted resolution of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the limited scope for the government to spend on public projects could weigh on construction industry growth.

The extent of gloom in the construction industry is visible from the fact that the industry value grew by a modest1.7% y-o-y and 1.5% y-o-y in nominal terms during Q112

and Q212, despite four consecutive years of contraction in the industry between 2008 and 2011. With the residential and non-residential construction sub-segment accounting for an estimated 82.3% of total construction industry value in 2012, it is unsurprising that the weaknesses in the housing sector are dampening growth in the industry. As such, much of our optimism for the French construction industry comes on the back of growth in the infrastructure industry, which we forecast to growth by an average 4.9% y-o-y between 2013 and 2021. This will increase the share of infrastructure industry value in the total construction industry from an estimated 17.7% in 2012 to 24.6% by end-2021.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/523898_france_infrastructure_report_q1_2013. ..


Key projects and developments that prompt this view are:

?? Three high-speed lines (LGV Sud Europe Atlantique, Contournement Nimes-Montpellier (CNM) and Bretagne-Pays dela Loire), costing a total of EUR29bn, will be a key thrust behind value creation for the French infrastructure sector. At a time when funding of projects is a key concern, the high-speed project connecting the cities of Le Mans and Rennes proved its worth in October 2012, when the European Investment Bank (EIB) signed the first instalment of EUR100mn (US$129.1mn) out of a total EUR300mn (US$387.4mn) loan to finance the project. ?? There is also significant activity in the French airport segment. French Aeroports de Paris (ADP), the owner and operator of Charles de Gaulle (CDG) and Orly airports in Paris, has reportedly earmarked EUR2.4bn towards new infrastructure at the airports until 2015. In October 2012, ADP also launched a major modernisation project for Paris-Orly Airport as a part of the broader Horizon 2018 initiative. Impetus for the aviation sub-sector should also come from the construction of a new international airport in Nantes. ?? Large-scale projects planned in nuclear power and the investment in overhauling and expanding the country's power grid will support growth in the energy and utilities infrastructure sector. Our longheld view that the renewables sector will generate interest at a global level is also playing out, with the Iberdrola-EOLE-RES consortium securing a contract from the French government to construct the Saint-Brieuc (Cotes-d'Armor) wind power plant offshore Brittany in April 2012. In September 2012, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault added more optimism to the sub-sector with revelations of plans to launch an offshore wind power tender worth around one gigawatt by the end of 2012.

Despite the overall cautious outlook, France fares significantly better than its other developed counterparts in BMI's infrastructure risk/reward ratings, scoring 68.6 - higher than the developed market average of 65.4.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
- France Infrastructure SWOT
Market Overview
- Competitive Landscape
Building Materials
- Europe
- Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12)
- Cement Forecasts
- Table: France Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2010-2016
- Table: France Cement Production and Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: France Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
- Table: France Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
- Table: France Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
- Table: France Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Major Projects - Transport
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure
- Table: France Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
- Table: France Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-201
- Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Energy and Utilities
- Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Table: France Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2010-2016
- Table: France Residential and Non-residential Building Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Residential, Non-Residential and Social Infrastructure
- Table: Major Projects - Residential, Non-Residential and Social Infrastructure
Risk/Reward Ratings
- France's Risk/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
- Regional Overview
- Developed States' Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Developed States Infrastructure Risk Reward Ratings
Company Monitor
- Lafarge
- Bouygues Construction (Bouygues Group)
- VINCI Group
- Vinci Revenues by Business and Geographies, 9M12
- EDF Group
Global Overview
Source: Bloomberg
Methodology
- Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Data Methodology
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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