2013-01-31 08:58:00 - New Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "France Metals Report Q1 2013"
BMI's France Metals Report for Q1 2013 examines the long-term challenges facing steelmaking and aluminium smelting in the country and warns that the sectors are at risk of permanent capacity closure. We look at how the country's leading metals producers, ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto Alcan, are facing up to an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment and whether France will be able to return to pre-2008 rates of production. We also examine whether the structural shift towards delocalisation that has affected the French automotives industry could extend to metallurgical production.
The relatively strong performance the French steel industry enjoyed in H112 had dissipated in the second half of the year as it struggled with an increasingly sluggish domestic manufacturing sector and
an equally listless European scenario. Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By December 2012, a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely that the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.
Full Report Details at
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following views and forecasts:
* While France has been one of Europe's better performing steel-producing nations, output was still 20% below typical pre-2008 levels in 2012 and BMI estimates that utilisation levels are averaging 70-75%. Cuts in crude steel-making capacity are therefore inevitable in order to ensure the long-term stability of both the French and EU steel industries.
* With the steel industry facing output cuts, an economy set to grow by just 0.9% in 2013 and crude steel consumption set to fall 1.8% to 16.03mnt, BMI forecasts just 0.1% growth in crude steel output to 15.87mnt. This is a downward revision from the 16.18mnt previously forecast and BMI warns of considerable downside risk.
* The French steel industry will undergo the same process of 'delocalisation' as other industrial sectors that the government will be largely powerless to stop. By 2017, crude production and consumption should reach 17.5mnt and 17.1mnt, respectively, which is still well down on prerecession levels.
* Cuts in aluminium production mean that we have estimated a 3% decline in primary aluminium output to 429,000 tonnes in 2012, which offsets the growth reported over the previous two years. Modest 0.2% growth is expected in 2013 as the industry remains under pressure due to poor market performance.
Report Table of Contents:
- France Business Environment SWOT
Europe Metals Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: France - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: France Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: France - Primary Aluminium Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes unless stated otherwise)
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Losing Pace Without Household Consumption
- Table: France - Economic Activity
- Monthly Metals Update
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Steel Forecast
- Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013: Short-Term View
- Table: Steel Forecast
- Table: Steel Forecasts
- Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities
- Rio Tinto
- Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
- Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.