2012-09-08 09:21:00 - Fast Market Research recommends "Iraq Defence & Security Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI's Iraq Defence & Security Report for Q3 2012 examines the country's strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report's general conclusion is that Iraq remains at serious risk of fragmentation, partly as a result of the failure of its political parties to work together, and also due to the increasingly bloody insurgency that continues to take the lives of
hundreds of civilians each month.
Internally, the coalition government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is coming under mounting pressure, with even Maliki's Shi'a allies starting to turn against him. Nonetheless, Maliki has shown little interest in honouring the power-sharing agreements that enabled him to form a government in late 2010. The result is that the country faces nothing short of political turmoil in the second half of 2012. Iranian support for Maliki is likely to complicate this delicate situation still further.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/456343_iraq_defence_security_report_q4_2012. ..
Meanwhile, the Iraqi security forces - now deprived of US support - remain incapable of holding back an al-Qaeda insurgency that has cost an estimated 1,400 lives since the American withdrawal. With many attacks being sectarian in nature, the worsening violence has the potential to fracture the Iraqi state, especially with the county's politicians currently so divided along the same ethnic lines.
The US still aims to support Iraq through arms sales and other programmes, but even this intention is being thwarted by Baghdad's failure to claim the vast majority of the funds that Washington has allocated for it.
Iraq is not yet a failed state. But failure could become unavoidable if significant improvements in its political and security situations are not achieved in the second half of 2012.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* The latest developments in the Iraqi insurgency are discussed, including a string of al-Qaeda attacks against Shi'a civilians in early July. It was also revealed that Iraq-based al-Qaeda insurgents are crossing into Syria to stage attacks there.
* The deterioration of Iraq's political situation is also discussed. In Q2 Sunni politicians failed in a bid to force a vote of no-confidence against Maliki. However, more serious for the prime minister was the decision of Shi'a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to withdraw his support. This decision led to Sadr being summoned to Iran in June, where he was told to give Maliki two more months to set his coalition government in order. In July there was little sign of Maliki winning over his Sunni, Shi'a or Kurdish opponents. Such is the fragile state of Iraqi security, however, that it was unknown whether Maliki's downfall would improve the situation or only worsen the country's instability.
* Some military procurements, including new UAVs and armoured vehicles, have continued. However, procurements have slowed significantly during 2012, with a US Congressional report noting that only 85% of the funds made available to the Iraqi security forces for 2011 had actually been spent. This failure was put down to the worsening chaos at the heart of government, and also to Maliki's reluctance to appoint a defence minister.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Iraq Security SWOT
- Iraq Defence Industry SWOT
- Iraq Political SWOT
- Iraq Economic SWOT
- Iraq Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- No Respite From Political Risks
- Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korea
- Table: Election Timetable
- Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Regional Power Dynamics
- Nuclear Proliferation
- External Powers
- Scenarios For The Middle East
Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Iraq's Security Risk Rating
- Political Uncertainty Undermining Investment Climate
- Tension Growing Steadily
- A Worsening Environment For Oil Companies
- A Lost Success Story?
- Risks Increase For The Energy Sector
- ...The Construction Industry
- ... And Government Spending
- Table: Political Overview
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Multiple Challenges To Stability Over The Coming Decade
- Challenges And Threats To Stability
- Scenarios For Political Evolution
- Foreign Relations
- Iran Nuclear Dispute Crib Sheet And FAQ
- Core View: No War In 2012
- Key Risks To Our Core View
- How Might Things Change After The US Election?
- Is Iran Definitely Developing Nuclear Weapons?
- Would A Nuclear Iran Be An 'Existential Threat' To Israel?
- What Would It Take To Defuse The Crisis Indefinitely?
- Does Israel Have The Means To Attack Iran By Itself?
- What Would Be Iran's Response To An Israeli/US Strike?
- What Would Be The International Response To An Israeli/US Strike?
- How Long Would A Military Conflict Last?
- What Would Be The Domestic Consequences For Iran?
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Iraq's Insurgent Groups
- External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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