2012-01-30 13:59:42 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Latvia Shipping Report Q1 2012"

The country's largest port at Riga will boast the most impressive tonnage throughput growth figures in 2012. Year-on-year (y-o-y) growth is forecast to stand at 5.73% in 2012, before slowing to an average of 2.41% between 2012 and 2016. The Port of Ventspils' rate of year-on-year (y-o-y) growth will be negligible both in 2012 and over the mid term, with a projected growth figure of just 1.55% in 2012, only just coming ahead of the annual mid-term average of 0.72%.

Good news had been received during Q411, however, in the form of the strong performance recorded by Germany's main port of Hamburg, which defied the country's macroeconomic woes in H111, seeing a considerable box throughput increase, an achievement attributed in no

small part to the integral role of increasing demand from Latvia and its Baltic neighbours such as Russia, Lithuania and Estonia.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/326957_latvia_shipping_report_q1_2012.aspx


We do not expect September 2011's snap election to alter our shipping forecasts in the mid term, with key issues centring on the ongoing austerity push that is affecting the whole of Europe. We therefore expect the incoming coalition government to continue with its fiscally prudent, pro-IMF policy agenda.

Headline Industry Data

* 2012 Port of Riga tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 5.73%.
* 2012 port of Riga container throughput is forecast to increase 15.39%.
* 2012 Port of Ventspils tonnage throughput is forecast to rise 1.55%
* 2012 Port Of Ventspils container throughput is forecast to increase 1.80%
* 2012 total trade real growth is forecast to rise 10.25%.

Key Industry Trends

Baltic State Ports Back In Fashion As Russia Diversifies Grain-Export Route The Port of Ventspils will once again play a key role in Russia's grain-export supply chain, following a four-year hiatus. The move is very much a welcome one, as the development of the Russian port of Ust- Luga remains a threat to Baltic state ports.

Ventspils And Riga Both Enjoy Successful Start To 2011

The ports of Ventspils and Riga enjoyed a strong performance in terms of y-o-y tonnage throughput for the first eight and seven months of 2011 respectively (latest available data), with the former posting a 9.2% annual increase and the latter a 16% growth.

Risks To Outlook

The largest risk on the horizon appears to be on the downside, in the form of Russia's new oil terminal at the port of Ust-Luga. Throughput volumes at the Russian port, which was conceived to allow Russia to ship oil and oil products through a domestic facility, continue to increase. This said, however, BMI highlights that although the development of Ust-Luga - as well as Russia's plan to construct its own supply-chain network to decrease its dependence on its neighbour's ports - was coupled with souring political relations, Russian firms and exports will still play a role at Baltic State ports.

This is highlighted by Russia's decision to end a four-year hiatus and once again use the Latvian port of Ventspils in its grain-export supply chain. The move emphasises Russia's willingness to diversify its export routes via neighbouring states, something that had been called into doubt by the development of Ust-Luga.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Latvia Shipping SWOT
- Latvia Political SWOT
- Latvia Economic SWOT
- Latvia Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Shipping
- Lines To Enter 2012 In The Red
- Overcapacity To Plague Medium Term, Beware 2013
- Table: Snapshot Of Container Lines' Orders
- ETR Short And Long Term Benefits To Woo Carrier Expansion
- Table: Top 20 World Ports
- Port Operators To Face Tougher 2012 As Box Volumes Slow
- Container Curse To Hit Box Manufacturers, But Outlook Strong
- Dry Bulk
- Chinese Slowdown Threat Double Downside Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
- Vale May Find Solace With South Korea As Chinese Troubles Continue
- Lines Need To Up Capacity Reduction Strategies To Ease Oversupply
- Dry Bulk Lines In Choppy Waters, Possibility Of More Bankruptcies
- Liquid Bulk
- Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant
- Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes
- Genmar Bankruptcy Just The Beginning
- Survival Strategies For Floundering Tanker Operators
- Rumoured Chinese Order Has Potential To Sink Crude Oil Shipping Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
- Free Port Of Ventspils
- Shipping
- Congestion
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
- Freeport Of Riga
- Shipping
- Congestion
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions and Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Port Of Riga
- Port Of Ventspils
- Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2016
- Trade
- Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Latvia's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Latvia's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
- Latvian Shipping Company (LASCO)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- APL
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- CSAV

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