2012-08-04 18:27:36 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Libya Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012"

BMI View: Oil output is forecast to bounce back strongly in 2012, with production expected to come in at 1.62mn b/d. Gas production has been much slower to recover, with offshore operations only restarting in earnest in February 2012. Over the longer term, both oil and gas volumes are likely to increase beyond pre-war levels as new investment flows into under-explored areas - especially offshore.

The key trends and developments in Libya's oil & gas sector are:

* We forecast total liquids production of 1.62mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, with this to rise to nearly 1.77mn b/d in 2016 and 1.85mn b/d in 2021. Gas output is forecast to increase from 4.89bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 16.50bcm

by 2016 and 16.67bcm by 2021. These forecasts are subject to upside risks depending on the level of upstream investment that can be drawn by the National Transitional Council (NTC) and by the country's government. Foreign suitors are likely to be attracted by Libya's vast oil and gas reserves, which stood at an estimated at 44.1bn barrels (bbl) and 1.56trn cubic metres (tcm) respectively in 2011.
* Until a democratically elected government is established, key contracts reviewed, and a petroleum law approved, above-ground risks will continue to deter some investors. News that the eastern province of Cyrenaica is to create a local council is a timely reminder of these risks. Nevertheless, BMI anticipates that most companies will believe the potential benefits of new investment will far outweigh the risks of regulatory uncertainty.
* Before the civil war, there was 378,000b/d of refining capacity in Libya (according to BMI's Downstream Projects Database). At the time of writing, refinery output stands at just 158,000b/d, with the facilities at Tobruk, Sarir and Lawiya operating at near full capacity. The 220,000b/d refinery at Ras Lanuf remains offline despite assurances from Libya's National Oil Company (NOC) that it would resume operations in April 2012. Our forecasts point to a gradual restoration of refinery utilisation from July 2012, with pre-war levels of utilisation expected by end-2012. Additional refinery capacity was set to come onstream in 2019 at the proposed Zwara facility; however, it remains to be seen whether project partners NOC and Tamoil will follow through with the plans.
* Consumption is set to return to pre-war levels more gradually because damage to infrastructure is likely to lead to lower domestic demand from power generation. However, over the longer term, reconstruction efforts are likely to drive economic growth and oil demand higher. We forecast that consumption will bounce back from an estimated 231,000b/d in 2011 to 364,000b/d in 2016 and 418,000b/d in 2021.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/444317_libya_oil_gas_report_q3_2012.aspx


At the time of writing, we forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, which we see falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Global real GDP growth for 2012 is forecast to be 2.6%, down from 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and continuing concerns over the eurozone debt crisis.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Libya Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Libya Energy Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Libya Oil & Gas - Historical Data And Forecast, 2009-2016
- Table: Libya Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Libya
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
- Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Libya Upstream Rewards
- Libya Upstream Risks
- Libya Downstream Scores
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Libyan Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing and Regulation
- Tax Law
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- Fourth Licensing Round (First Gas Licensing Round)
- Third Licensing Round
- Second Licensing Round
- First Licensing Round
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Monitor
- National Oil Corporation (NOC)
- Eni North Africa
- Total Libya
- OMV of Libya
- Repsol YPF Libya
- Marathon Oil
- ConocoPhillips
- BP - Summary
- ExxonMobil - Summary
- Tatneft - Summary
- Occidental Petroleum - Summary
- BG Group - Summary
- Hess - Summary
- Woodside Petroleum - Summary
- Chevron - Summary
- Statoil - Summary
- Royal Dutch Shell - Summary
- Suncor - Summary
- PGNiG - Summary
- Gazprom - Summary
- Gazprom Neft - Summary
- RWE - Summary
- Verenex Energy - Summary
- Indian Oil/Oil India - Summary
- Others - Summary
Africa - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=444317&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.