2012-11-18 04:29:33 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Mexico Retail Report Q4 2012"

The Mexico Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Mexico's economic outlook of a weaker external environment weighing on demand for Mexican exports and starting to sap consumer confidence.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Mexican retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a eurozone crisis or rapid slowdown in Chinese growth on the Mexican consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/499828_mexico_retail_report_q4_2012.aspx


The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Mexican retail sector as they seek

to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Mexican per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a respectable 28% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 17%. The country comes second out of seven in BMI's LatAm retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms slightly in the 'reward' category.

Among all retail categories, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales expected to rise by 55.2% throughout the forecast period, from US$1.80bn to US$2.79bn.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in President Felipe Calderon having signed a decree to amend the regulation of health supplies, which should strengthen Mexico's business environment and encourage domestic industry growth.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* BMI is revising up its 2012 real GDP growth forecast, from 3.4% to 3.8%, as the victory of business-friendly Enrique Pena Nieto bolsters investment. However, in 2013 we expect that Mexico's weaker manufacturing sector will begin to weigh on consumer confidence to the extent that, even with a stronger investment picture, we expect growth will slow to 3.4% (revised up from 3.0% due to the stronger investment outlook).
* After private consumption recorded 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in Q112 - the largest expansion since before the start of the 2008/09 global financial crisis - BMI sees potential for some moderation towards the end of 2012 and into 2013. We forecast growth of 4.5% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013, contributing 3.1 percentage points (pp) and 2.6pp to real GDP growth respectively.
* BMI's forecast for strong private consumption has been reinforced by recent retail sales data, which showed a rise of 1.8% month-on-month (m-o-m) in July. This was above the estimated 0.9% increase in a Reuters poll. Compared with June 2011, sales were up by 5.6%, beating expectations of a rise of 4.13%.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Mexico Political SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: Regional Food Consumption, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Regional Mass Grocery Retail, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Mexico's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Mexico Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format, 2002-2009 (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format, 2002-2009 (MXNbn)
- Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format (2009)
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Mexico Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
- AV
- Table: AV Sales, 2008-2016
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Electronics Market
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Mexico Autos Industry SWOT
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Sales
- Table: Autos Sales By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Production
- Table: Autos Production By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Trade
- Table: Autos Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Economic Contribution
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=499828&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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