2013-02-03 08:28:39 - Fast Market Research recommends "Moldova Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Given the high level of reliance on out-of-pocket payments, the growth of the Moldova's pharmaceutical market is expected to be shaped by the prevailing economic conditions, both at home and abroad, on account of the importance of remittances to the country's GDP. For 2012, we expect the market's value to increase at a local currency rate of 6.7%, although this will translate into negative US dollar growth, on the back of a weak leu.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: MDL2.47bn (US$211mn) in 2011 to MDL2.64bn (US$204mn) in 2012; +6.7% in local currency terms and -3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
* Healthcare: MDL9.06bn (US$773mn) in 2011 to MDL9.64bn (US$747mn) in 2012; +6.4% in local currency terms
and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
* Medical devices: MDL669mn (US$57mn) in 2011 to MDL735mn (US$57mn) in 2012; +9.8% in local currency terms and -0.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529427_moldova_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_re ..
Risk/Reward Rating: Moldova's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score, which assesses the country's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers, remains unchanged at 41.8 for Q113. The score places the country second from the bottom in the regional matrix assessing 20 key markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Moldova's risks and rewards are relatively evenly balanced, although both remain considerably lower than the regional averages.
Key Trends And Developments:
* In September 2012, Moldova's government released a draft law that is likely to ban direct-toconsumer (DTC) advertising for medicines in the country. The draft law now permits drug advertising only through pharmacies and specialised medical journals. The decision against DTC drug marketing has come in the wake of increased overall medicine use in the country that resulted in elevated antibiotic resistance.
* In a related development, in October 2012, the Moldovan Ministry of Health banned the free sale of 80% of drugs in the country. The drugs sold through pharmacies are now sold on prescription. The ban follows an increasing number of Moldovans getting seriously ill or hospitalised due to misuse of self-medication, Minister of Health Andrei Usatii said. Improper use of the drugs accounts for 30% of hospitalisation cases in the country, according to the ministry.
BMI Economic View: The downside risks to our economic outlook remain elevated as the eurozone crisis continues, while extreme weather has damaged the agricultural sector. Nonetheless, we hold to our below-consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2012, based on an assumption of improved domestic demand in H212, although we have cut our target for 2013 to 4.5%, from a previous 5.8%.
BMI Political View: We expect the government of Moldova to miss its short-term targets for budget deficits of below 1% of GDP by 2015. Nevertheless, we believe its commitment to disciplined fiscal policy will be viewed favourably by businesses and investors, particularly given the current regional crisis. For example, budget policies for 2013 have been sanctioned in parliament, including a controversial value-added tax (VAT) hike in agricultural goods from 8% to 20%, and in natural and liquified gas from 6% to 8%. Increases in excise duties on cigarettes and alcohol also form part of the package of measures, which the government expects will boost revenues by MDL500-600mn from 2013.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Moldova Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Emerging Europe Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
Moldova - Market Summary
- Intellectual Property Rights
- Marketing Authorisation
- Advertising of Medicines
- Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- International Trade Agreements
- Table: 10 Most Frequent Causes of Death
- Table: Leading Causes Of Morbidity, % Of Total Disease Burden
- Communicable Diseases
- Healthcare Sector
- Healthcare Financing
- Table: Public Healthcare Expenditure, 2006-2011
- Primary Care
- Secondary Care
- Table: Physicians And Hospital Beds In Moldova, 2003-2011
- Compulsory Health Insurance
- Health Insurance Developments
- Research & Development
- Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: General Government Budget, 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Exports And Imports Indicators 2008-2016
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Device Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Domestic Industry
- Foreign Industry
- Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale
- Pharmaceutical Retail
- Local Companies
- Farmaco (Pharmaco)
- Top Pharm
- Multinational Companies
- Gedeon Richter
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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