2013-03-02 15:35:22 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Peru Autos Report 2013"
Peru's auto industry has enjoyed a strong 2012, with new vehicle sales having increased by 28% year-onyear (y-o-y) over the first 11 months of 2012 (the most recent data available as this report was being compiled), to 174,125 units, according to figures from the Peruvian Association of Automotive Representatives (Araper). BMI forecasts full-year vehicle sales to increase by 31.3 % y-o-y in 2012.
BMI believes that the key factors that will support healthy vehicle sales in Peru moving into 2013 are the continuation of strong private consumption growth, healthy per capita economic growth, the strong sol currency, and the greater availability of credit through the increased affordability and provision of loans to many Peruvians. This view is continuing to play out,
and has partly informed our bullish outlook for vehicle sales.
Full Report Details at
Further underlining our upbeat stance towards the Peruvian auto sector was the news in December 2012 that the European Parliament has approved a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Peru and Colombia. It is expected that this agreement will take effect in Q113. BMI believes that this will boost autos imports from Europe to Peru and Colombia, providing some upside risk to our European production forecasts and sales outlooks for both Peru and Colombia.
Currently, there is no vehicle production in Peru, and all sales are met by imports. Peru has FTAs with the US, China, South Korea and Japan, which have served to boost sales of brands from all of these countries. With this new FTA in place, we believe that European brands will now be well placed to benefit from future growth in the Peruvian market.
For now, however, the local market remains dominated by Japanese automaker Toyota Motor. Across all segments, Toyota had sold 29,990 units over the first 11 months of 2011, for a market share of 17.2%. In second place was South Korean carmaker Hyundai Motor on 23,954 units (13.8%), followed by fellow Korean carmaker Kia Motors on 17,211 (9.9%).
Looking forward, BMI forecasts vehicle sales to rise by 18% y-o-y in 2013. This represents a slowdown from the strong growth seen in 2012, but remains a robust annual increase. We believe that this growth slowdown will result from the more substantial size of the local market, and from a slight moderation in private consumption over the year. Over the remainder of our newly-extended forecast period to 2017, we expect to see continued strong double-digit sales growth.
We believe that, as the market increases in volume terms, very high growth rates (such as those witnessed in 2012) are generally unsustainable for a whole year. BMI anticipates a moderation in private consumption in 2013, on the back of modest currency weakness, although we do also anticipate an uptick in credit growth on the back of interest rate cuts.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Peru Auto Industry SWOT
- Peru Political SWOT Analysis
- Peru Economic SWOT Analysis
- Peru Business Environment SWOT Analysis
- UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
- Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
- Bullish On Mexico
- Comparative Weakness In Productive Capacity Of Mexico's Regional Rivals
- The Continued Recovery Of The US Vehicle Market
- Positive Developments In The Domestic Supply Chain
- Trade Agreements And Quotas Amongst Mexico's Large Neighbours
- The Strength Of The Peso May Dampen Export Growth
- Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Peru Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Peru - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- Market Overview
- Table: Top Nine Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Nov 2012)
- Passenger Cars
- Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Passenger Car Sales (Nov 2012)
- Commercial Vehicles
- Toyota Motor
- Hyundai Motor
Peru Demographic Outlook
- Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Peru's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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- Peru Infrastructure SWOT
- Five Year Investment Plans (2011-2016)
- Latin America
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Peru Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
- Table: Peru Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Construction and Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
- Table: Peru Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
- Table: Peru Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
- Transport Infrastructure Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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