2013-04-20 05:29:53 - Fast Market Research recommends "Peru Shipping Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
We forecast real GDP growth to come in at 5.4% in 2013, a slight upgrade from our previous forecast of 5.2%, due to our expectation that economic activity will remain relatively robust in the next few months.
BMI sees favourable base effects affecting Peruvian exports in 2013, including the cyclical upswing in Chinese growth, some upside for metals prices in H113, as well as modestly stronger hydrocarbons production that will boost exports this year. This should boost shipping volumes. We expect slowing domestic growth to weigh on imports, forecasting growth of 8.1% in 2013, down from 10.4% in 2012. That said, in line with our view for economic rebalancing in China, we expect export growth will remain well off its recent
highs, averaging 8.0% between 2013 and 2017, as compared to 19.1% between 2006 and 2011.
Full Report Details at
Headline Industry Data
* We are projecting box traffic at Callao to grow 5.2% in 2013 to 20.3mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
* We expect growth of 2.9% in total tonnage throughput at Callao to 1.1mn tonnes.
Key Industry Trends
CTA To Build Minerals Terminals At Callao: The government of Peru announced that private investor Consorcio Transportadora Callao (CTC) building a US$43.1mn investment to build an export terminal for minerals at Callao. According to the Peru's national ports entity, Autoridid Portuaria Nacional (APN), CTC is funding the entire investment over a 13-month period.
New Sevice Between US West Coast and Peru: Hamburg Sud launched a direct liner service between North, Central and South America at the start of January.
Peru Bunker Prices Climbing: The price of bunker fuel at the Port of Callao in Peru jumped nearly US $20/mt as bunker suppliers received new pricing for resupply from the state-owned oil company Petroperu in January.
Key Risks To Outlook
A delayed rebalancing of the Chinese economy could result in a continuation of the trend of robust external demand for Peru's mining exports, as well as stronger investment inflows than we currently anticipate.
These factors would likely bolster Peru's economy in the coming years, posing major upside risks to our real GDP growth forecasts of 5.4% for 2013 and 4.9% for 2014. However, if growth does begin to slow in the latter half of the year - our core view - we could see counter-cyclical fiscal policy, such as increased funding for the ongoing infrastructure stimulus programme, bolstering growth and posing upside risks to our current forecasts.
Further upside is presented by the considerable investments being made in developing Peru's port infrastructure by international port operators such as DP World and APM Terminals.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Port of Callao Throughput Outlook
- Port of Paita Throughput Outlook
- Table: Major Port Data
- Table: Trade Overview
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
- Peru Container Shipping Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
- Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
- Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
- Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
- Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, But For How Long?
- Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
- Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
- Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
- Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
- LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Hanjin Shipping
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Mitsui OSK Lines
- Table: Peru - Economic Activity
- Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020
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