2013-12-29 18:51:57 - Fast Market Research recommends "Puerto Rico Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Puerto Rico's struggling economy will continue to put pressure on public healthcare resources, and we expect only a limited increase in the uptake of pharmaceuticals and medical services in the short-and medium- term. Given such a background, it is therefore unsurprising that Puerto Rico's House of Representatives passed a resolution, in October 2013, to promote the production of generic drugs in the country, which would also stimulate their local consumption. Although Puerto Rico is a well-established pharmaceutical manufacturing hub, the industry has been suffering due to the economic slowdown in export markets - resulting in job losses- and to the downward pressure on the territory's wider economic performance.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: US$2.92bn in 2012 to US$3.03bn in 2013; +3.5%
in local currency terms. Forecast below the previous quarter's projection due to macroeconomic factors.
* Healthcare: US$7.53bn in 2012 to US$7.81bn in 2013; +3.7% in local currency terms. Forecast unchanged from the previous quarter.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754639_puerto_rico_pharmaceuticals_healthcar ..
Risk/Reward Rating: While Puerto Rico is again ranked third out of the 17 markets surveyed in the Americas region in our latest Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) regional assessment, Puerto Rico is not considered an attractive longer term prospect from the point of view of multinational investment.
Although its per capita spending on medicines is higher than in Latin American countries, an economic slowdown, high unemployment and falling population numbers will continue to weigh on its pharmaceutical market development.
Key Trends and Developments
* In October 2013, US-based Elite Pharmaceuticals signed a manufacturing and licence agreement with compatriot Epic Pharma. Under the terms of the agreement, Epic will have the right to manufacture, market and sell 12 generic products owned by Elite in the US and Puerto Rico. Of the 12, Epic will have the exclusive right to market six and the non-exclusive right to market the other six. The term of the licence agreement is for five years, although it may be extended for an additional five years upon mutual agreement.
BMI Economic View: We recently flagged up the high likelihood that Puerto Rico had fallen into a double-dip recession in Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 (July 2012 to June 2013), following a five-year recession between FY 2007 and 2011. We see a high likelihood of a technical debt default by Puerto Rico amid a double-dip recession and a delicate fiscal position. In the actual event of a default, the lack of legal precedent generates significant uncertainty of how it would unfold, although we see a high risk of substantial losses for investors.
BMI Political View: The ruling Partido Popular Democratico (PPD) is pushing for a constitutional assembly to address Puerto Rico's political status with the US. The assembly follows a non-binding referendum that took place in November 2013, which showed that 52.4% of those who voted are not in favour of Puerto Rico's commonwealth status, although only 45.0% voted in favour of become a state of the US. We believe that it is unlikely Puerto Rico will change its political status over the coming years, as all four previous referendums have failed to result in a clear majority favouring a change to the status quo.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Puerto Rico Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Puerto Rico Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Puerto Rico Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Puerto Rico Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Puerto Rico OTC Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Puerto Rico Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Puerto Rico - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Puerto Rico Risk Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Healthcare Sector
- Effects of US Healthcare Reform
- Healthcare Financing
- Healthcare Provision
- Medical Tourism
- Research & Development
- Clinical Trials
- Pricing and Reimbursement
- Tax Incentives
- Table: Incentives, Benefits And Discounts For Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
- Trade Accords
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Table: Major International Drugmakers In Puerto Rico
- Pharmaceutical Production
- Plant Expansions
- Table: Puerto Rico Continues To Attract Foreign Investment, Despite Challenges
- Plant Closures
- Company Developments
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale
- Pharmaceutical Retail
- Merck & Co
- Abbott Laboratories
- Eli Lilly
- Johnson & Johnson (J&J)
- Puerto Rico
- Table: Puerto Rico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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