2014-01-24 01:09:44 - Fast Market Research recommends "Qatar Power Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
The Qatari power sector is set for strong growth over the coming years as the country gears up for the FIFA World Cup in 2022. Heavy government spending, robust economic growth and a growing population will see demand for electricity rise significantly over the next decade, and the government has outlined its commitment to investing in power infrastructure to satisfy that demand.
The recent announcement that the Qatari government is planning to build a huge US$3bn power plant known as Ras Laffan D has underlined the bright outlook for the domestic power sector in the years ahead. Although Qatar is attempting to reorient its power sector towards the use of solar power and other renewable sources, for the time being the
emirate remains almost entirely dependent on oil and gas for its energy. With the economy continuing to grow at a robust pace, and the government anxious to ensure that the country is ready for the 2022 World Cup, this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future.
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Key trends and developments in the Qatari electricity market:
* Qatar is planning to build a huge US$3bn power plant known as Ras Laffan D, it was announced in October 2013. Although details remain scarce, the announcement aligns with statements made by the government back in February that it is intending to make investments worth US$22bn in its power and water infrastructure over the next eight years. The planned upgrades include the setting up of 140 electricity substations and the addition of over 2,000MW of capacity over a five-year period.
* Qatar Solar Technologies - a joint venture (JV) between Solarworld and several Qatari entities - is building a flagship US$1bn polysilicon plant in Ras Laffan Industrial City. The plant will initially produce 8,000 metric tonnes of polysilicon per annum and is designed to expand as demand grows. Kahramaa has also begun the tendering process for the construction of the country's first solar power plant. The project will begin with a pilot programme to supply 10MW of power, before going forward with the large-scale project, which will have a 200MW capacity. The first phase of the project is scheduled to be tendered in the first quarter of 2014.
* During the period 2013-2022, Qatar's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 6.8%, reaching 59.6 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 6.0% gain in gasfired generation, which remains the key form of power supply in the country. Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years, with all power projects currently planned or under construction using gas.
* Following an increase in 2012, real GDP of an estimated 6.2%, BMI forecasts growth to moderate significantly over the coming years, largely owing to base effects. We project average annual real GDP growth of 4.0% in the period 2013-2022. The population is expected to rise from 1.98mn in 2013 to 2.24mn by end-2022, with net power consumption anticipated to increase from 28.8TWh to 54.6TWh over the same period. During the 2013-2022 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 6.7%.
* Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, the growth of which exceeds the underlying demand trend, Qatar has the potential to develop a modest supply surplus for export to neighbouring countries, and any near-term supply shortfall should have been eradicated by the end of the forecast period. A major weakness in the market remains a high percentage of transmission and distribution losses, which hovers around 8.0%, and will need to be improved if the country is to become a major exporter.
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