2013-09-26 10:27:53 - Fast Market Research recommends "Romania Freight Transport Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Following a year of mixed growth dynamics, 2013 will signal growth in all freight modes in line with Romania's economic outlook, however, a return to pre-downturn levels is still some way to go for most of the modes.
Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 3.25% in 2013 following an estimated growth of 1.96% in 2012.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 2% in 2013. The mode did not manage to defy the downturn but so far appears to have defied European Union (EU) pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region; that is not to say, however, that road freight's
market share is safe.
BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Romania's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, although currently is expected to grow at a slower pace. The mode might benefit from the recent part-privatisation of Romania's national rail freight company CFR Marfa.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/686338_romania_freight_transport_report_q4_2 ..
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 9.4%
* 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.6%
* 2013 Port of Constantza throughput is forecast to grow by 1.5%
* 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.8%
* 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%.
* 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 3.3%.
Key Industry Trends
CFR Marfa Part-Privatised- Romania finally succeeded in its attempts to privatise national rail freight company CFR Marfa. Romanian private railway company Grup Feroviar Roman (GFR) has become CFR Marfa's majority shareholder. GFR agreed to pay EUR202mn for a 51% stake in CFR Marfa and promised to invest a further EUR204mn in the company.
Works on Road Bridge Continue- The installation of metal deck has begun on the bridge which is being built near the port of Constantza. This road bridge will add the bypass connection of the port and the Bucharest-Constantza Motorway, the connection between the south part of the port and the national road network and will create a direct link between the north and south areas of the port of Constantza without transiting the town.
Six Bids for Constantza Master Plan- Six bids were submitted at the second stage of the tender to choose consultants for the development of the Master Plan of the port of Constantza at the end of June 2013. The first stage took place in November 2012, when eight candidates submitted their documents. Seven of them were invited to participate in the second stage, the technical and financial proposals for the creation of the Master Plan for the port.
Ports Struggle to Keep Momentum- The freight volumes through Romanian seaports, according to the port authority, decreased by 1.56% y-o-y, from 19.46mn tonnes in January-May 2012 to 19.15mn tonnes in January-May 2013. Container volumes fell from 278,089TEUs to 264,886TEUs, a y-o-y decline of 4.75%. Funding Secured for Logistics Centre- Romanian businessman Bogdan Pitigoi, who heads the Tester group of companies, will receive EUR3.4mn in funding from the European Regional Development Fund to build logistics centre in Letcani, Iasi County, in the North-East of Romania.
Risks to Outlook
The potential for growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's positive outlook on the Romanian economy. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, with consumer demand in Romania forecast to strengthen. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 1.7% in 2013. Upside risks to our short and medium-term forecasts stem from expansion projects at the port of Constantza, potential foreign investment and interest.
A downside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of Romania's heavy exposure to the eurozone, with weaker demand affecting the country's port's and freight transport network and the country's export growth forecast to remain below 2010-2011 levels in 2013. Constantza's role as a gateway for trade to and from landlocked Central Europe may also be affected.
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