2013-11-02 10:05:32 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Russian petrochemicals capacity expansion over the medium term will be stimulated by expansion of nonoil industrial sectors and domestic market growth. BMI believes that a structural change in the economy towards domestic demand-led growth should benefit the petrochemicals industry, which is expected to see polymers capacity exceed 10mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2017 - a three-fold increase from that seen in 2008. Domestically-driven growth should ensure expansion does not lead to an imbalance between supply and demand, although in some segments there is the prospect of exports.
We are revising down our 2013 real GDP forecast for Russia to 2.6%, from a previous forecast of 3.6%, on the back of signals that President Vladimir Putin is willing to let headline
growth drop below the 3.0% level over 2013. However, most petrochemicals-consuming segments are set to outstrip GDP growth, with industrial growth anticipated to rebound to 6.8%, from the 5.2% contraction seen in 2012. While economic activity may be slowing, the output of key products from polymers grew 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H113.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/698106_russia_petrochemicals_report_q4_2013. ..
Russian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 59% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 42%, which should boost the polyethene segment.
* Key forecasts for Russia's petrochemicals sector: Russia is set to transform from a net PP importer to exporter in 2013 as new domestic capacity comes on stream. The most significant development is Sibur's 500,000tpa PP Tobolsk Polymer plant, which began trial production in May 2013 and is set for commercial production by the end of 2013. Meanwhile, Titan Group, based in Omsk, western Siberia, started operations at its new 180,000tpa PP plant in May 2013.Surging growth in the automotive industry will be broad-based, as it will benefit domestic carmakers and help develop the solid local supply chain, which in turn will boost demand for synthetic rubber and engineering plastics. BMI's core scenario for the autos sector in Russia envisages a more than three times increase in production, to 2.93mn units by 2017, compared with the level seen in 2009; output is set to grow 7.1% in 2013.
* PVC will receive a boost from growth in the construction sector, which is forecast to come in at 4.9% in 2013, but falling to an average of around 4.0% over the medium term.
* Sibur is pressing ahead with the EUR40mn PET polymer production project being built by Polief, in which it has a controlling stake. By July 2013, all production equipment required to expand PET capacity at the Polief complex in Blagoveshchensk by 110,000tpa to 250,000tpa had been installed. Commercial output is scheduled to begin in H114. The 'PET-210' project will replace PET imports in some Russian market segments. Russian per capita consumption rate of food-grade PET is 4.1 kg, compared with 9.5 kg in the US, according to Sibur.
* With a petrochemicals rating of 66.2 points, Russia's relatively strong position in our petrochemicals ratings for Europe has been recovering as its risks decline and capacity increases. Russia's score has increased 0.5 points this quarter, due to an improvement in market risks, putting it in seventh place. While its basic petrochemicals capacities are on a par with Germany, Russia is weak in scores relating to infrastructure - particularly its regulatory regime and governance - and a poorer Country Risk score. However, there is potential for Russia to improve as its petrochemicals sector develops alongside trade liberalisation.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Russia Petrochemicals Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Russia - Economic Activity
- Economic analysis - Russia 28 Mar 2013
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Russia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Table: Russia's Cracker Capacity Data - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017, ('000 tpa)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Olefins And Aromatics
- Polymers And Intermediates
- Table: Financial Results
- Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK)
- Table: Financial Results (RUBmn)
- Sibur Holding
- Table: Financial highlights (RUBmn, Unless Stated Otherwise)
- Europe Overview
- Short-Term Outlook: Competitiveness And Pricing
- Looking Beyond Europe
- Shale Gas Boom To Change European Petrochemicals Outlook?
Global Industry Overview
- Short-term outlook: Prices Stabilising & Margins Improving
- Long-term growth
- Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
- Demographic Forecast
- Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Full Table of Contents is available at:
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.