2013-03-03 10:54:24 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Turkey Agribusiness Report Q2 2013"

BMI View: We favour the sugar sector in Turkey because of the strong growth potential of the confectionary industry. We see little growth potential for the grain, dairy, livestock and rice sectors, where we believe the country's production growth will be hampered by high domestic production and input costs. In line with these views, we believe domestic confectionary companies will perform the best as they will take advantage of growing domestic sugar production capacity as well as a strong consumer story. We highlight Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi AS (Ulker) as an example for this.

Key Forecasts

* Corn production growth to 2016/17: 4.2% to 5.9mn tonnes. The increase in production will be buoyed by improving demand from the livestock sector as well

as artificially high domestic prices on the back of import restrictions linked to biosafety laws.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2016/17: 3.7% to 2.5mn tonnes. This will come on the back of strong growth for the confectionary industry as a whole as well as the positive consumer outlook.
* Beef production growth to 2016/17: 5.6% to 693,800 tonnes. This will come as producers look to tap into strong domestic growth in line with rising food consumption figures. * 2013 real GDP growth: 4.4%, up from 3.0% in 2012.
* Consumer price inflation: 5.8% on average in 2013, down from 8.2% on average in 2012.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 7.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to US$19.8bn in 2012/13, forecast to increase by an annual average of 4.1% between 2012/13 and 2016/17.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541287_turkey_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.as ..


Key Developments

Switzerland's Barry Callebaut, the world's leading business-to-business Chocolate manufacturer, is going to build a plant in Turkey. Even chocolate, which famously often does well even in recessionary times as a quintessentially affordable luxury, has found the going tough in Western Europe while by contrast, demand for high-end chocolate continues to grow nicely across much of the emerging world. Turkey certainly falls into this category with per capita consumption of chocolates forecast to reach just 1.6kg in 2012, which is well short of the levels consumed in mature markets, such as France and the UK, as the second chart illustrates. This is where the opportunity lies for companies such as Barry Callebaut. It is believed that the Turkey plant will have a production capacity of about 15,000 tonnes.

We maintain our forecast for sluggish growth in Turkey's beef production in 2011/12 as the recent hike in grain prices and still elevated domestic carcass prices have discouraged meat production. Q312 production results from the country's statistical institute show only a small increase in red meat production since the start of the year. Also, because Q411 production figures were very strong compared with the rest of the year, Q412 numbers could come in more subdued and therefore result in minimal overall growth in beef production in 2011/12.2012/13 is not expected to show any major recovery in beef production either, as we expect grain prices to moderate again only in Q313 and as restrictions on livestock carcass imports will leave input costs high.

We have revised down our 2012/13 forecast for wheat production in Turkey to 15.6mn tonnes (compared with 16.9m tonnes previously) in line with the latest estimates from local sources after the end of the harvest. This represents a fall of 28.4% y-o-y on the back of lower yields, especially in the Central Anatolia region. As the 2012/13 harvest came to an end, there is uncertainty about which crop farmers will favour for the 2013/14 season.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Sugar Outlook
- Table: TURKEY Sugar Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Sugar Production & Consumption
- Rice Outlook
- Table: TURKEY Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: TURKEY Rice Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: TURKEY Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Grains Outlook
- Table: TURKEY Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Barley Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Corn Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Barley Production & Consumption
- Table: TURKEY Corn Production & Consumption
Commodities Forecast
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Machinery Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Confectionery
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Pasta
- Table: Fish
- Table: Bread Products & Jams/Jellies
- Table: Dairy
- Drink
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecast
- Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
- Turkey Demographic Data
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=541287&dt=t

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