2013-02-19 10:16:37 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI Industry View
BMI View: Seemingly endless gas pricing disputes with Russia colour Ukraine's energy landscape, putting pressure on the country to maximise domestic production and diversify supply sources. Ukraine's vast shale gas potential could prove a long-term solution to its gas supply woes, as international oil companies (IOCs) increase their interest in the country's shale resources. Russia continues to make overtures regarding ownership of Ukrainian gas infrastructure, but these have so far been rejected.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Ukraine's Oil and Gas sector are:
Ukraine is aiming to increase its natural gas production by as much as 25% over the next three years in order to wean itself off costly Russian imports. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said in
November 2012 that the country's shale gas output could reach 20-30bcm per year by 2020.
Full Report Details at
Oil majors Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron were the winners of Ukraine's two shale gas fields, tendered in an auction that opened in February 2012, according to Reuters' Ukrainian government source. Shell has been awarded the Yuzivska field and Chevron the Olesska field. Ukraine's State Geological Service estimates that Yuzivska and Olesska could hold 2trn cubic metres (tcm) and 0.8-1.5tcm in gas reserves respectively, a highly optimistic assessment compared with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s estimate of 1.2tcm in recoverable reserves for the whole of Ukraine. Eni also took a stake in Ukraine's emerging shale industry by acquiring a 50.01% stake in LLC Westgasinvest, which holds shale gas licence rights in the Lviv Basin.
In August 2012, a consortium consisting of ExxonMobil, Shell, OMV Petrom and Nadra Ukrainy was awarded a 50-year production sharing contract (PSC) for the deepwater Skifska field, with an estimated 200-250bcm of gas-in-place, in the Black Sea. The group will be expected to begin work on the field before the end of 2012.
BMI estimates that gas demand will rise from an estimated 64.6bcm in 2011 to 73bcm by 2016, climbing above 80bcm by 2021. Production could see a gradual rise from an estimated 20.1bcm in 2012 to 21.7bcm in 2016 as current exploration successes are slowly developed over the period. This will further rise to 26.8bcm by 2021 on the back of the beginning of shale gas output. Growing consumption means that import requirement is still set to rise, from 46.1bcm in 2012 to 55.8bcm by 2021.
Ukraine is planning a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal with annual capacity of 10bcm. However, we do not expect it to come online before 2018, although Ukrainian officials are targeting 2015. The government has actively courted Azerbaijan and Qatar for long-term LNG supplies.
A slight downward revision to BMI's economic growth forecast for Ukraine leads us to increase our forecasts for Ukraine's oil consumption in 2016 to around 377,60 barrels per day (b/d) of oil. This could rise to 437,800b/d by 2021. With oil and gas liquids production likely to slip below 51000b/d, Ukraine will require imports of at least 386,800b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Oil imports are expected to cost the country around US$10.15bn in 2012 and could rise to US$10.3bn by 2016. The theoretical cost of 2012 gas imports is US$24.5bn, easing to US$23.8bn by 2016 as oil-linked gas prices drop.
At the time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price of US$107.05 per barrel (bbl) for 2012, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013 and US$93.25/bbl by 2016.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Oil and Gas SWOT
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Ukraine Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2017
- Table: Ukraine Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Ukraine Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Ukraine Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Ukraine Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Ukraine Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Ukraine Refining - Production and Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ukraine Refining - Production and Consumption, 2017-2022
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Regional Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Caspian Switch In Upstream Rankings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
- Russian Trouble Grows
- Regional Minnows Breaking In
- Downstream: Major Shuffle
- Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Energy Market Overview
- Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Naftogaz Ukrainy
- Lukoil Ukraine
- JKX Oil & Gas
- Others Summary
- Royal Dutch Shell - Summary
- Tatneft Summary
- Regal Petroleum
- Cadogan Petroleum Summary
- Transeuro Energy Summary
- Kulczyk Oil Summary
- Advance Energy
- Regional Energy Overview
- Loosening The Bear Hug
- Central Asia: Beneficiaries Of Europe's Russian Fatigue
- Looking To LNG
- Russian Retaliation
Global Industry Overview
- Global Energy Market Overview
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
- Inflection point
- New Frontiers In Production
- Central and Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.