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New market study, "Cameroon Agribusiness Report Q1 2014", has been published


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2014-01-05 22:14:09 - New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

We have moderated our bearish outlook on Cameroon's coffee prices, which has given us a slightly more positive outlook for the sector. The slow start to the cocoa season, apparently due to heavy rainfall, emphasises the sector's vulnerability to weather, but we are not worried at this early stage. Longer-term prospects remain bright, with cocoa prices expected to climb higher and remain high to 2017. Rainfall has also led to a downgrade of expectations for the sugar harvest. Corn production will benefit from the World Bank, which is supporting farmers, but increasing demand, as a result of population growth, will require further efforts to improve inputs and yields.

Key Forecasts

* Corn consumption growth to 2017: 35.6% to 2.2mn tonnes. Rising

incomes and a growing population will see increased demand for the staple grain.
* Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 33.3% to 300,000 tonnes. Higher prices and increased government and private investment will drive the sector.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 23.2% to 306,800 tonnes. Significant increases in GDP per capita, rapid population growth and a fast-expanding food and drink sector will support growth.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value growth: 7.3% to US$1.38bn in 2013 (up from US$1.28bn in 2013; forecast to grow by an annual average of 7.1% to 2017).
* 2014 real GDP growth: 4.6% (up from 4.4% in 2013; forecast to grow by an annual average of 4.8% between 2014 and 2017).
* 2014 consumer price inflation: 2.5% year-on-year (2.5% in 2013; forecast to grow by an annual average of 2.5% between 2014 and 2017).

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754713_cameroon_agribusiness_report_q1_2014. ..

Key Revisions To Forecasts

* Long-term coffee production forecast revised up to 816,000 tonnes in 2016/17 (from a previous forecast of 759,000 tonnes). We now expect prices to recover slightly in the latter years of the forecast period from the lows of 2013 and 2014.

Industry Developments

Higher cocoa prices are expected to increase output in Cameroon. BMI is now forecasting cocoa to average higher at GBP1,560/tonne in 2013 and GPB1,750/tonne in 2014, before averaging GBP1850/tonne out to 2017. We see supply deficits for each year of our forecast period to 2017, with weaknesses in the cocoa sectors of Cameroon's West African rivals, particularly Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana. We expect that demand will remain subdued in 2013 and 2014 due to lack of economic growth in the eurozone, but we see consumption growth improving in the latter years of our forecast. If the Cameroonian government can support the industry sufficiently as major producers struggle, local farmers could take advantage of a recovering market.

At the start of the new sugar season in October 2013, SOSUCAM announced that it would produce between 110,000 and 115,000 tonnes in 2013/14. This new projection is a reduction from the previous forecast of 120,000-125,000 tonnes. Speaking at a news conference in Yaounde, General Manager Louis Yinda, said the reduction is the result of heavy rainfall. As SOSUCAM is the only producer of any significance, this will probably result in increased imports in 2014.

The World Bank continues to support Cameroon's efforts to increase supply of staple food stuffs. In October 2013, the government announced the allocation of a further XAF50bn (US$102.4mn) of funding for promoting corn, cassava and sorghum production, four-fifths of which will come from the World Bank, with the remainder being provided by the Cameroonian government. The investment will support an agricultural development project, the first phase of which runs from 2014 to 2019. Farmers will be incentivised to work together and will receive financing through mutual associations.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Cocoa Outlook
- Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Coffee Outlook
- Table: Cameroon Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Cameroon Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Sugar Outlook
- Table: Cameroon Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Cameroon Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: Cameroon Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Cameroon Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Africa Machinery Outlook
- Africa GM Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Cameroon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Cameroon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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