2013-12-14 11:55:14 - New Healthcare market report from Business Monitor International: "Germany Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2014"
Since the adoption of the Arzneimittelmarkt-Neuordnungsgesetz (AMNOG) bill in 2011, Germany's health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making bodies have taken an increasingly hard line when determining whether a new drug provides added value to patients in comparison with existing therapies. The result is that companies have to accept a non-negotiable reference price for their products or not to market their drug in Germany at all. Either option significantly restricts pharmaceutical companies' revenue streams and threatens returns on innovation.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: EUR39.84bn (US$50.60bn) in 2012 to EUR40.02bn (US$53.22bn) in 2013; 0.4% in local currency terms and 5.2% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: EUR290.83bn (US$369.35bn) in 2012 to EUR296.31bn (US$394.09n) in 2013; +1.9% in local currency terms and +6.7%
in US dollar terms.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/752019_germany_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_re ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q114 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Germany is ranked the most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Western European region, which covers 14 key markets.
Key Trends And Developments
* In October 2013, an agreement for a revised mutually acceptable reimbursement price for Sativex (tetrahydrocannabinol+cannabidiol) was reached between Almirall, GW Pharmaceuticals' commercial partner in Germany, and the German National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds (GKV-SV). This new agreement has resulted in an increase to the previously reduced price imposed by the German authorities in March, which Almirall considered unacceptable.
* On August 6, Bayer HealthCare announced that the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee unanimously recommended approval of the oral soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC) stimulator, riociguat, for two forms of pulmonary hypertension. Riociguat addresses a high unmet medical need and is the first drug to demonstrate efficacy in two forms of pulmonary hypertension, one of which has no drug treatment approved to date, according to Dr Kemal Malik of the Bayer Healthcare Executive Committee and Head Of Global Development. In February 2013, Bayer submitted a new drug application for riociguat indicated to improve exercise capacity.
BMI Economic View: The risks to our short-term growth forecasts lie primarily to the downside, given the array of challenges facing the eurozone. The main threat, in our view, is one of confidence, as further flare up in sovereign/banking sector crises in periphery states could prompt another collapse in investment, damaging consumer confidence in the process. There is also a threat of German authorities clamping down on rising house prices for fear of a speculative bubble (the Bundesbank has outlined its concerns over excessive mortgage growth in recent months), which would also act to dampen consumer confidence.
BMI Political View: Our expectations of a grand coalition between the centre-right Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats have been reinforced by the results of Germany's September 22 federal election. The policy mix of such a coalition would be very similar to the previous government, albeit with greater scope for disagreement on fiscal and energy policy.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Germany Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Germany Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Germany Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-10 (EURbn)
- Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-10 (Packages, ms)
- Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-10 (Average Price per Pack, EUR)
- Table: Germany Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Germany Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Germany Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Germany Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Trade
- Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Table: Germany Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn)
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Germany - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Germany Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Healthcare Sector
- Health Insurance
- Healthcare Sector Reforms
- Research & Development
- Biotechnology Sector
- Table: Biotechnology Sector, 2008-09
- Clinical Trials
- Table: BfArM Drug Registration Activity, 2006-10
- Intellectual Property Regime
- 2010 Healthcare Reform
- Pricing Regime
- Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market
- Table: Selected AMNOG Drug Assessments
- Reimbursement Regime
- Table: Top 10 GKV Selling Drug Brands, 2009-2010 (EURmn)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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