2013-01-30 08:40:10 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Hungary Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013"
BMI View: While national energy group MOL has great plans for the Central European region, maximising the impact of its downstream assets, it can do little to ease Hungary's growing dependence on imported oil and gas. Independent explorers have made some recent progress in locating untapped (largely gas) reserves, but the upstream picture remains relatively unattractive. Hungary's commitment to the new South Stream gas pipeline scheme should provide greater long-term supply security.
Main trends and developments for Hungary's Oil and Gas sector are:
* Falcon Oil & Gas has discovered a large Basin-Centred Gas Accumulation (BCGA) and a potential fractured oil and gas play in the Mako Trough area in south-central Hungary. An independent report estimates potentially recoverable contingent resources at
42.6mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe), based on a minimum 90% probability.
* In July 2012 Falcon concluded negotiations on a significant exploration programme with its partner, Serbia's Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). It covers the drilling of three exploration wells on the shallow Algyo play. The first well should spud in Q4, with the second and third in early 2013.
* Explorer Ascent Resources has estimated that around 50% of the tight gas in the Petisovci- Lovaszi area (on the Hungary/Slovenia border) can be recovered. Proven and probable reserves are almost 12bn cubic metres (bcm). Recent drilling success means that Ascent can now proceed with the re-development of the Petisovci field. The company is studying options that would see it bring gas production on stream at Pg-10 and Pg-11A during the first half of 2013.
* Over the medium-term, an increase in overall gas consumption from an estimated 12.5bcm in 2012 to around 15.9bcm in 2016 is expected, followed by growth to 19.5bcm by 2021 - implying that net gas imports could reach 18.5bcm by the end the period. Efforts are being made to stabilise domestic gas production, but there is little sign of any major increase in volumes.
Full Report Details at
Hungarian oil consumption fell from its peak of 198,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 1990 to a low of 135,000b/d in 2003. It has since recovered slowly, reaching an estimated level of 143,000b/d in 2012. We expect a gradual recovery - held back by the near-term economic outlook - with consumption reaching no more than 153,200b/d by 2016 and climbing to 163,600b/d by 2021. Domestic production is not expected to rise from recent levels, with steady slippage more likely. This will lead to higher import volumes, reaching 139,800b/d by 2021.
Crude oil import costs should ease from an estimated US$4.52bn in 2012 to US$4.35bn in 2016. reflecting an assumed 2012 average OPEC basket oil price of US$107.10 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$93.25/bbl in 2016. The cost of gas imports is expected to be US$6.4bn by 2016, providing a combined end-period oil and gas import bill of US$10.9bn.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Hungary Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Hungary Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Hungary Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015 - 2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Hungary Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Hungary Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Hungary Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Hungary Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- Refining and Oil Products Trade
- Table: Hungary Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Hungary Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015 - 2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Hungary Upstream Rating - Overview
- Hungary Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Hungary Upstream Rating - Risks
- Hungary Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Hungary Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Hungary
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Pipelines
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Hungary Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Player
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari Nyrt (MOL)
- Shell Hungary
- OMV Hungary
- Agip Hungaria
- ExxonMobil - Summary
- Lukoil - Summary
- E.ON - Summary
- Rohol-Aufsuchungs Aktiengesellschaft (RAG) - Summary
- Ascent Resources - Summary
- Falcon Oil And Gas - Summary
- Hungarian Horizon Energy - Summary
- JKX Oil & Gas - Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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