2012-08-31 14:06:12 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Indonesia Power Report Q3 2012"
BMI View: Thermal power generation will remain the most dominant form of electricity generation in the country, with coal comprising the lion's share due to Indonesia's vast coal reserves. Renewables will also play a role with geothermal energy expected to become a key domestic growth area. There is huge hydro potential but only a limited development programme. Investment will have to meet government targets if Indonesia is to avoid a steady rise in power import dependency.
Indonesia is moving slowly ahead with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant. Several schemes exist at the preliminary planning stage, but there is little evidence to suggest plant start-up during the current decade. The government says it has a total of US$8bn
earmarked for four nuclear plants, which are intended to generate 6 gigawatts (GW) of power by 2025. There is no expectation of electricity production from nuclear power over our forecast period.
Full Report Details at
Key trends and recent developments in the Indonesian electricity market include:
* Industry reports suggest that Indonesia holds up to 76GW of hydropower potential, but the country has yet to embark on the large hydro-electric programmes seen elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region. The capital costs involved have most likely deterred investors, who prefer to stick with conventional thermal schemes or embrace geothermal supply.
* We expect Indonesian power generation to reach 184.2 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012, up 8.0% on the previous year. Thermal generation is expected to have risen by 8.13% year-on-year (y-oy) thanks largely to an assumed 9.54% increase in coal-fired power. Oil-fired and gas-fired generation are expected to register growth of 6.35% and 7.5%, respectively.
* During the period 2012-2021, Indonesia's overall power generation is expected to increase by an average of 7.32% y-o-y, reaching 348TWh. Driving this growth are average annual gains of about 7.73% in coal-fired and 13.9% in non-hydro renewables generation, augmenting average increases of about 5.55% and 7.35% in the use of oil- and gas-fired electricity supply respectively.
* Indonesia is adding about 10,000MW of standing electrical capacity generation to support strong domestic economic growth, with around 60% of capacity expected to be online in 2012. PLN currently controls 28.3 megawatts (MW) of installed generating capacity, or about 85% of the country's total.
Report Table of Contents:
- Indonesia Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Indonesia Snapshot (Macro)
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Indonesia Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021
- Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016
- Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016
- Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts,2013 - 2021
- Table: Indonesia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008 - 2016
- Table: Indonesia Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 -2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Key Projects Database
- Major Projects Table
- Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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