2013-08-20 09:04:53 - Fast Market Research recommends "Lithuania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Unfavourable economic headwinds will continue to pose downside risks to our pharmaceutical market forecasts for the Lithuanian market, especially given that out-of-pocket payments continue to represent a substantial proportion of total drug expenditure. Nevertheless, volume demand will continue to be supported by demographic and epidemiological factors.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.72bn (US$639mn) in 2012 to LTL1.73bn (US$668mn) in 2013; +0.9% in local currency terms and +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast considerably lower in relation to previous quarter, on account of less favourable macroeconomic outlook and analyst intervention.
* Healthcare: LTL7.43bn (US$2.77bn) in 2012 to LTL7.47bn (US$2.88bn) in 2013; +0.5% in local currency terms and +4.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast considerably lower in relation to previous quarter, on account
of less favourable macroeconomic outlook and analyst intervention.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/670574_lithuania_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_ ..
Risk/Reward Rating: Having been ranked 15th in Q2 2013, Lithuania now occupies a slightly improved 14th position out, of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. While the new risk and reward assessment tool is more transparent and more sensitive in regards to potential rewards, we note that Lithuania's small population size will continue to be a drag in terms of the longer-term opportunities of its pharmaceutical market. Therefore, we do not envisage much improvement in Lithuania's overall Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score.
Key Trends and Developments
* In May 2013, Australian pharmaceutical specialist Pharmaxis appointed PharmaSwiss, a division of Canadian Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, as distributor for Bronchitol (inhaled mannitol) in Lithuania and 10 other Eastern European countries, including in the other Baltic States. The agreement forms part of Pharmaxis' commercialisation strategy, which to date has seen Bronchitol made available in the UK, Germany, Austria and Denmark. PharmaSwiss will take responsibility for obtaining pricing approval with the Polish reimbursement authority, a process that is expected to take approximately 18 months to complete.
* In April 2013, Valeant-owned Lithuanian pharmaceutical manufacturer Sanitas terminated a proposed sale of a pharmaceutical manufacturing line and the plant associated with it. The firm explained that, on October 8 2012, it had applied to the Lithuanian Business Support Agency for permission to sell the assets; the firm had used EU assistance funds for the plant's acquisition and modernisation under an agreement made between it, the Lithuanian Ministry of Economy and the Lithuanian Business Support Agency in January 2005. However, Sanitas has revealed that no arrangements for the potential sale were concluded with any potential purchasers. The company commented that it would look for a new purchaser, but that, in the meantime, the facility would continue in daily operation.
BMI Economic View: Lithuanian economic growth will slow in 2013, as fixed investment remains elusive and households continue to deal with a weak labour market and over-leverage. Moreover, we highlight that in the context of weakening external demand, the limited competitiveness gains over the past five years means that exports will not be able to offset poor domestic demand. The economy expanded by 3.6% last year, just above our expectations for 3.3% growth, and we continue to see a slowdown to 1.8% real GDP growth this year.
BMI Political View: Almost six months after its election victory, Lithuania's centre-left government appears to be off to a flying start. Indeed, the country's new government remains highly popular and will have a unique opportunity to raise its international profile when it assumes the European Union (EU) presidency in the second half of the year. This, combined with recent improvements in the country's public finances, will enable Lithuania to more closely align itself with the euro area's creditor countries.
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