2013-11-02 10:03:56 - Fast Market Research recommends "Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI Ratings - Brief Methodology
The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI's emerging markets universe.
The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo?
Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?
Full Report Details at
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The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.
Business Environment Rating
The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Risk Ratings - Oman
BMI Risk Ratings - Yemen
Middle East - Ratings League Tables
Executive Summary - Oman
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Oman
Privatisation A Long-Term Imperative
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Royal Succession: Who Is Next In Line?
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Oman
Near-Term Growth Dynamics Remain Strong
- Oman's near-term economic outlook remains broadly favourable, with non-oil growth set to be fuelled over the coming quarters by expansionary public spending policies and healthy domestic demand.
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Balance Of Payments
Current Account To Turn Into Deficit In 2016
- Oman's current account surplus is set to turn into deficit over the coming years as oil prices head lower and gas exports decrease.
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT
Corporate Segment To Drive Lending
table: BANKING SECTOR
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Oman
The Omani Economy To 2022
The Next Episode: Shifting Away From Oil
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 1.4: Business Environment - Oman
Business Environment Outlook
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
TABLE: MENA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS (US$mn)
Executive Summary - Yemen
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Yemen
Reconciliation Talks: Southern Issue Unresolved
- Despite some progress in Yemen's National Reconciliation Conference, the form of a future Yemeni state remains unresolved.
Table: Political overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Turbulent Decade Ahead: Scenarios For Change
- With the 34-year rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh at an end, we point to the colossal social, economic and political challenges that his successor will face. We emphasise that the risk of widespread political instability will remain high for many years to come.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Yemen
Uninspiring Outlook Due To Political Risks
- We forecast Yemen's economy to expand by 3.0% and 5.4% in real terms in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Elevated political risks will ensure that fixed investment and exports will grow below potential.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Inflation Declining In 2014
- We forecast consumer price inflation in Yemen averaging 15.0% in 2013 and 10.0% in 2014. Given elevated prices this year, the central bank will maintain interest rates at the current levels of 15.00% over the remainder of 2013. That said, we see interest rates being cut to 13.00% by end-2014.
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Yemen
The Yemeni Economy To 2022
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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