2013-10-29 18:05:58 - Fast Market Research recommends "Bosnia-Herzegovina Infrastructure Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Overall, we believe there is the most potential for growth in Brazil's sugar, livestock/dairy and coffee segments over the medium term. This is because of a shift in food consumption growth towards Asia for these items, while demand growth from traditional buyers will be subdued. We are positive about the sugar cane sector as a whole, as we forecast strong production growth over the rest of our forecast period.
This will benefit the ethanol industry in particular. In the short term, we highlight downside risks to the coming corn and soybean harvests, as we believe the country's production capacity has reached its maximum. Among Brazilian agribusiness companies, we favour Sao Martinho because it is the largest player in the sector and
the most likely to benefit from industry developments.
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* Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 15.5% to 42.5mn tonnes. Because global prices have bottomed, and the amount of sugar cane diverted to ethanol is reaching a record this season, we expect sugar production to pick up strongly in the coming years, driven by export demand, especially from Asian countries with low sugar consumption per capita.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2017: 18.9% to 10.9mn tonnes. A growing middle class and the general preference for poultry over all other meat groups because of its health properties and lower prices will encourage demand growth.
* Milk production growth to 2016/17: 29.5% to 40.8mn tonnes. Brazil has the potential to become a significant exporter of dairy products over the forecast period to 2017 if its milk collection and processing infrastructure can be brought up to international standards.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 2.0% (up from 0.9% in 2012).
* 2013 consumer price inflation: 6.2% average (up from 5.4% in 2012)
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$174.8bn in 2013, forecast to increase by an average of 2.5% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
Revisions to our forecasts:
* Corn: 2012/13 production revised up from 78.0mn tonnes to 80.0mn tonnes in line with official estimates. 2013/14 production revised down from 80.0mn to 73.0 on first estimates for the coming crop.
* Wheat: 2013/14 production revised down from 6.0mn tonnes to 5.0mn tonnes owing to the anticipated effect of frosts. 2012/13 wheat consumption revised down from 11.1mn tonnes to 10.9mn tonnes as high prices discouraged demand.
* Barley: 2013/14 production revised up from 272,700 tonnes to 295,000 tonnes on higher first estimates for the crop.
* Cotton: 2012/13 production revised slightly up from 5.5mn bales to 5.8mn bales on latest official estimates; 2013/14 production revised up from 6.5mn bales to 6.8mn bales, based on improved yields and area harvested
Brazil's 2013/14 farm budget shows the country has given priority to infrastructure investment, with 18.3% of the budget aimed at financing new warehousing capacity. Out of the BRL136bn (US$64bn) approved in the 2013/14 farm budget (20.0% higher than in 2012/13), BRL25bn (US$11.8bn) will support private grain storage facilities through subsidized loans, offering interest rates of around 5.5%, compared with commercial loans priced at 12%. Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento estimates current storage capacity at around 39mn tonnes, with a total grain harvest of 184.2mn tonnes expected in 2012/13. Other local sources have estimated that storage capacity is in general below 40% of production.
We see downside risks to our 2013/14 sugar production forecast for Brazil following unfavourable weather. Persistent rains in June and frosts in July slowed cane harvesting and sugar processing in the country. In fact, local industry sources indicate that frosts in Brazil had affected about 65mn tonnes of uncut sugar cane. Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento forecasts 652.0mn tonnes of sugar cane to be harvested in 2013/14, a 10.7% y-o-y increase. Brazilian sugar association Unica calculated that 2.5mn tonnes of sugar were produced in the second half of July, a 14.8% y-o-y decline.
On June 10, Brazilian livestock giant JBS agreed to buy the poultry unit (known as Seara) of fellow Brazilian producer Marfrig by assuming US$2.7bn of Marfrig's debt. Seara generates roughly US$4.7bn in sales, which will mean JBS will approach US$50bn in total revenues once the deal is completed. This is the third largest purchase by JBS (which has made more than 40 acquisitions since 2008), with the firm having acquired poultry producers Bertin (for US$6.3bn) and Pilgrim's Pride (for US$3bn) in 2009. As part of the Seara deal, JBS also purchased Uruguayan leather maker Zenda. The deal remains subject to regulatory approval, particularly from Brazil's anti-trust agency. There were a few disclosures not specified in the announcement, such as working capital requirements, short-term growth prospects for Seara, historical information and expected synergies.
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