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New Market Study Published: Hong Kong Real Estate Report Q1 2013


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2013-02-01 18:11:18 - Fast Market Research recommends "Hong Kong Real Estate Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

The Hong Kong Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country in the context of a cooling market. The report covers rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the necessary contraction in the property market.

According to our most recent round of in-country interviews which were conducted in July 2012, rents in Hong Kong could see a subdued second half of 2012 in all commercial sub-sectors, as the economy continues to exhibit increasing signs of weakness. Also, we are seeing strong signs of a marked

slowdown in the retail sector which, coupled with corrective pressure in the property market, means that consumption momentum should slow further. We consequently see fit to maintain our bearish outlook on the economy and see real GDP growth coming in at 2.2% in 2012, versus consensus expectations for 3.0% expansion. We expect this economic weakness to extend into 2013, with economic growth seeing a marginal acceleration to 3.5%.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529352_hong_kong_real_estate_report_q1_2013. ..


Key Points

* We have seen fit to downgrade our forecasts for Hong Kong's real GDP growth. We now see 2012 growth in the city slowing from a previous estimate of 2.2% to 1.6%. This remains below the consensus projection of 2.5% and close to the midpoint of the government's recently revised forecast range of 1.0% to 2.0%. Our 2013 forecasts have also been revised downward to 2.5% from a previous estimate of 3.5%.
* Hong Kong's property market is undergoing a necessary correction. We are not discounting a further marginal near-term upside in prices, as investors ride on bullish sentiment from the equity markets, as well as the third round of quantitative easing. That said, we believe that receding demand, stemming from further economic deterioration and the government's tightening measures, coupled with the anticipation of a meaningful increase in the housing supply in the coming years, will combine to enforce a correction in property prices in 2013.
* We expect the housing correction to weigh on the government's revenue stream. Moreover, the government appears on course towards upgrading the social welfare infrastructure and we should continue to witness an increase in welfare disbursements as growth concerns come to the fore in 2013. While we expect to witness some deterioration in the government's fiscal position, we believe the decline is unlikely to be of material effect.
* We are forecasting a robust 8.3% year-on-year rise in real growth for Hong Kong's residential and non-residential housing market over 2012, as the sub-sector builds on its Q112 performance, which saw the largest amount of growth for a decade. We also note that the country's housing bubble is being defused by huge quantities of new land for development that are entering the market. This figure reflects an upward revision from a previous forecast of 0.8%, which was made over Q212, in line with a revision to the total construction forecast.
* Trade prospects for the rest of 2012 look increasingly bleak. The export sector saw a marked deterioration in Q312, and we expect this downward trajectory to extend into the fourth quarter as the performance in forward-looking electronics and machinery sectors continues to disappoint. Looking ahead into 2013, while we could possibly see a stabilisation in economic momentum, we do not envision a strong recovery in the Hong Kong's exports.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Hong Kong Real Estate/Construction SWOT
- Hong Kong Political SWOT
- Hong Kong Economic SWOT
- Hong Kong Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Real Estate Market Analysis - Office
- Supply And Demand
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (HKD per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease - H112
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents (HKD per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
Real Estate Market Analysis - Retail
- Supply And Demand
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents - 2010-2011 (HKD per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Lease - H112
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents (HKD per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
- Table: Hong Kong Retail Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
Real Estate Market Analysis - Industrial
- Supply And Demand
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (HKD per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease - H112
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents (HKD per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
Forecast Scenarios
- Infrastructure Report
- Table: Hong Kong Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008-2016
- Table: Hong Kong Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Real Estate Risk Reward Ratings
- Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
- Hong Kong's Business Environment
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
- Cheung Kong (Holdings)
- Chinese Estates Group
- Henderson Land Development (HLD)
- Sino Group
- Sun Hung Kai Properties
Demographic Data
- Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Hong Kong's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Hong Kong's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=529352&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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