2013-03-14 10:45:11 - New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
The Indonesian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact of poor trade performance on the Indonesian economic outlook.
The report considers how to maximise returns in the Indonesian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of high large-scale portfolio outflows (should the global economy underperform BMI's already bearish expectations for 2013) on the Indonesian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indonesian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Full Report Details at
Indonesia comes fourth out of seven in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 69.7% between 2013 and 2017, from US$42.41bn to US $71.97bn as the large population is tempted by certain aspects of modern retailing such as private labelling, price promotions and bulk selling.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's interference in hypermarket planning, which should encourage growth in the medium-sized supermarket sector and the convenience sector.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
* Following what has been perhaps the worst trade performance in the region in 2012, BMI expects Indonesia's external balance to stabilise somewhat in 2013 on the back of a moderate recovery in export growth, as reflected by our forecast for the current account deficit to fall slightly from 2.1% of GDP in 2012 to 2.0% in 2013.
* Private consumption's share of GDP in Indonesia is relatively high for its level of development, and it has been widely noted that the Indonesian consumer provides some insulation to the economy against external weaknesses. BMI expects private consumption to grow by a solid 5.5% in 2013 after expanding by 5.4% in 2012, although we note that the Indonesian consumer could eventually be hit by external factors should conditions in the global economy deteriorate further.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Retail SWOT
- Business Environment
- Table: Indonesia Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
- Economic Activity
- Trade Deterioration Slowing...
- ...But Risks Seen In Portfolio Account
- Risks To Outlook
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- Risk Reward Ratings
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Regional Overview
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%)
- Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Key Growth Drivers
- Economic Growth
- Population Growth
- Growth In Organised Retail
- Multinational Investment
- Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
- Industry Forecast - Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%)
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Estimated Number Of Outlets By Format
- Table: Structure Of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales By Format (IDRbn)
- Table: Structure Of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales By Format (US$mn)
- Table: Average Annual Sales By Format - 2011
- Passenger Vehicles - Indonesia - Q1 2013
- Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Passenger Car Sales And Production
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
- Market Overview
- Table: Computer Spending By Sector (estimate)
- Table: Computer Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: AV Demand, 2010-2017
- Table: Mobile Telephone Industry Sales, 2010-2017
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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