2012-09-03 14:25:26 - New Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report examines the country's strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the Islamic Republic and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that Iran faces ever-deeper isolation from the international community, as well as a range of severe security threats, both internal and external. Internally, Islamist hardliners have cemented their grip on power even as the country's economy runs deeper into crisis: social unrest and an Arab Spring-style uprising cannot be discounted. Iranian oil
revenues have been hit hard by sanctions and also by the falling oil price; this is piling added pressure onto the country's already-struggling economy.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451297_iran_defence_security_report_q4_2012. ..
Externally, the US and Israel continue to weigh up the pros and cons of attacking Iran in order to try to halt its nuclear programme. An attack during 2012 now appears unlikely; however, the build-up of US forces in the Persian Gulf means that Washington is now in a position to strike, should the Iranians follow through with their threats to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran also faces the possibility of losing one of its few regional allies, the Assad regime in Syria. Its relations with the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) of Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, are extremely tense, while Tehran's relations with Turkey also stand to suffer over its continuing support for the Assad regime, which Ankara strongly opposes.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* The latest military and diplomatic developments concerning Iran are discussed in detail. Though negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries have continued in Istanbul, the prospect of a diplomatic solution appears extremely remote. Iran's military moves have garnered far more attention: it has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to any oil tanker destined for a country that abides by the sanctions against Iran; it also staged a series of ballistic missile tests in July, and warned the US that all its bases in the region would be destroyed 'within minutes' of any attack on Iran.
* Military developments include: the launching of a new Iranian reconnaissance satellite; the relaunching of one of the navy's three Kilo-class submarines following an extensive refit; and the reported entry into service of a first Iranian-built version of the AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter.
* The US has also continued to build up its forces in the Middle East. This has included the deployment of additional F-22 and F-15 fighter aircraft, minesweepers and the amphibious dock ship USS Ponce. Two carrier battle groups remain in the region, with a third on standby.
* A powerful new spyware program, called Flame, has attacked Iranian computer systems (as well as those of other countries in the region). This followed the disclosure that the Stuxnet virus, which attacked computer systems relating to Iran's nuclear programme, was of US/Israeli origin and that US President Barack Obama personally ordered the cyberattacks to continue, despite growing concerns about the virus infecting non-Iranian systems.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Iran Security SWOT
- Iran Defence Industry SWOT
- Iran Political SWOT
- Iran Economic SWOT
- Iran Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- No Respite From Political Risks
- Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korea
- Table: Election Timetable
- Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Regional Power Dynamics
- Nuclear Proliferation
- External Powers
- Scenarios For The Middle East
Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Domestic Politics
- Ahmadinejad's Influence To Wane In Domestic Struggle
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Regime Change Likely By 2020
- Foreign Relations
- Iran Nuclear Dispute Crib Sheet And FAQ
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Current Strength
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
- Table: Background Brief - Iran's Nuclear Programme, 2002-2008
- Arms Trade Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Key Players In Iran's Defence Sector
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: Iran's Armed Forces, 2001-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Iran's Defence Personnel - Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise
- Government Expenditure
- Table: Iran's Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2016
- Table: Defence Expenditure Scenarios - Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Defence Trade
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Economy To Contract as Sanctions Bite
- Table: Iran's Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- International Companies
- China Great Wall Industry Corporation
- Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
- Domestic Companies
- Aerospace Industries Organization
- Ammunition & Metallurgy Industries Group
- Defense Industries Organization
Full Table of Contents is available at:
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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