2013-02-22 14:09:29 - Fast Market Research recommends "Russia Mining Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

We forecast Russia's mining industry value to reach US$161bn by 2017, growing at an annual average rate of 1.5% from 2011 levels. We believe strong growth in 2009 to 2011 will be followed by years of stagnation as palladium and platinum production in the country experience modest growth over the coming years. Nevertheless, we have a positive view on the Russian mining industry given the country's vast unexplored mineral resources. The coal sector is promising as the government plans to invest RUB3.7trn (US$120bn) in the sector between 2012 and 2030.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536552_russia_mining_report_q1_2013.aspx


The government will maintain a strong influence on the industry. For example, total palladium supply from Russia is complicated by palladium sales from government stockpiles,

which are very large relative to primary production. Foreign firms are also restricted in investing in the industry. Companies seeking to develop a 'strategic resource', defined as a region with more than 1.6mn ounces of gold and 500kt ('000 tonnes) of copper, must seek permission from a government commission. Diamonds, uranium, cobalt, nickel, lithium, the platinum group metals (PGM), tantalum and niobium cannot be mined by foreign firms. In practice, legal obstacles to foreign investment have prevented large overseas firms from developing exploration projects, and smaller reserves are relatively unattractive given the bureaucratic problems. We expect the regulatory structure to remain favourable to domestic miners with obstacles to foreign investment remaining. Endemic corruption will likely further dissuade foreign investment.

Looking at production, we are most positive on the coal, nickel, iron sector as we forecast annual average growth rates of 1.8%, 1.3% and 2.3%, respectively. We expect stagnant growth in the platinum and palladium sectors given our average annual growth forecasts of 1.3% and 1.0%, respectively. Production growth in platinum will be coming from Amur Minerals. The largest producer Norilsk Nickel will not be contributing to production growth in the PGM sector given the company's stagnant to negative production guidance for 2012 and beyond.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Coal: Kuzbass To Underpin Production Growth
- Table: Russia - Coal Production Forecasts
- Iron Ore: Little Impetus For Output Growth
- Table: Russia - Largest Iron Ore Projects
- Table: Russia - Iron Ore Production Forecasts
- Platinum: Modest Growth In Place
- Table: Russia - Largest Platinum Projects
- Table: Russia - Platinum Production Forecasts
- Palladium: Production To Remain Flat
- Table: Russia - Largest Palladium Projects
- Table: Russia - Palladium Production Forecasts (mn ounces, unless stated otherwise)
- Nickel: Subdued Growth Ahead
- Table: Russia - Largest Nickel Projects
- Table: Russia - Nickel Production Forecasts
- Gold: Regulatory Hurdles To Restrict Growth
- Table: Russia - Gold Production Forecasts (mn ounces, unless stated otherwise)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Europe Business Environment Analysis
- Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
- Mongolia: Greater Government Control Unlikely To Hinder Phenomenal Growth
- Kazakhstan: Weak Infrastructure Restrains Growth Potential
Market Overview
- Table: Russia - Mining Industry Value & Production Forecasts
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
- Monthly Metals Strategy
- Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now
- Steel: Bleak Outlook
- Aluminium: Major Gains Over
- Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk
- Lead: Heading Lower
- Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs
- Tin: Continued Outperformance
- Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Russia - Largest Mining Projects
- Table: Russia - Largest Listed Mining Companies
Company Profile
- Norilsk Nickel
- Table: Norilsk Nickel - Financial Data
- SUEK
- Table: SUEK - Financial Results
- Polymetal International
- Table: Polymetal - Financial Results
Regional Overview
- Europe: Mining Sector Outlook
- Table: Major Nordic Mining Projects
- Table: Key Gold Projects In Eastern Europe
Global Industry Overview
- Global Mining Outlook
- 1. Winners & Losers In 2013
- Table: Recent Tax Increases
- 2. China Slowdown To Weigh On Mining Equities
- 3. Capex At Risk As Prices Head Lower
- 4. Africa To Continue Attracting Chinese Attention
- 5. Changing Global Coal Trade Dynamics
Methodology

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