2014-01-23 19:59:45 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Romania Freight Transport Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Following a year in which BMI believes saw increasing freight volumes, 2014 will signal further growth across the whole freight transport sector in line with Romania's economic outlook, although the return to pre-downturn levels is still not on the cards.
Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year on year (y-o-y) increase of 5.45% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 4% in 2013.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 3% in 2014. The mode did not manage to defy the downturn but so far appears to have defied European Union (EU) pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region, that is not to
say, however, that road freight's market share is safe.
BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Romania's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, although currently is expected to grow at a slower pace. In the longer term the mode might benefit from the privatisation of Romania's national rail freight company CFR Marfa, which, however, is unlikely to happen until at least 2015.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/763990_romania_freight_transport_report_q1_2 ..
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 9.0%.
* 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.8%.
* 2014 Port of Constantza throughput is forecast to grow by 2.6%.
* 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 3.1%.
* 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.6%.
* 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 5.5%.
Key Industry Trends
CFR Marfa Privatisation: Back to Square One- Another attempt to privatise national rail freight company, CFR Marfa has failed; the new one is expected after the company's restructuring, with a deadline set in May 2015.
Grain Terminal in Constantza to Expand- Canopus Star grain terminal at the Romanian port of Constantza port will see an expansion triggered by US-based multinational agribusiness company Cargill investment. The terminal's operational capacity will increase to 50,000 tonnes, while its warehouse capacity will grow to 110,000 tonnes, when the investment is completed in 2014.
Constantza Infrastructure Upgrade Continues- The Managing Authority for the Sectoral Operational Programme - Transport 2007-2013 and the NC 'Maritime Ports Administration' SA signed the contract awarding the grant for the project 'Development of the railway capacity in the river-maritime area of Constantza Port'. The Managing Authority will organise the provision of funds for the total eligible amount of RON60,007,551.
Risks to Outlook
The potential for growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's positive outlook on the Romanian economy. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, with consumer demand in Romania forecast to strengthen. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 2.8% in 2014.
Upside risks to our short and medium term forecasts stem from expansion projects at the port of Constantza; potential foreign investment and interest; and improving domestic demand in the euro area, in particular in Germany, which will prove supportive of sustained export growth over the coming quarters.
A downside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of Romania's heavy exposure to the eurozone and the region's possible weaker-than-expected recovery over the coming quarters, which would weigh on export growth and industrial production going forward, weakening demand, and so affecting the country's ports and freight transport network. Constantza's role as a gateway for trade to and from landlocked Central Europe may also be affected.
Report Table of Contents:
The table of contents for this report is available upon request.
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com
or call us at 1.800.844.8156.