2013-02-22 14:02:20 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Russia Freight Transport Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
There are three key themes to watch in Russia's freight transport market in 2013, with all of them offering upside risk to our forecasts for this sector.
The Russian government's privatisation drive will continue to roll on in 2013, with port stakes and rail freight units still to be auctioned off. The privatisation of stakes in the freight sector is not only enabling funding to be raised, which is due to be invested in the country's transport network, thereby giving it a boost, but is also leading to greater participation by private companies. These private companies are bringing both expertise and investment, thereby leading to risks to the upside for our forecasts.
On top of privatisation, in the rail freight sector specifically,
we are seeing a consolidation of players with major mining and steel producing firms selling their transport subsidiaries and major private logistics players developing in Russia's rail freight system. BMI believes that this will lead to a more joined-up approach for transport options in the Russian freight sector - good news for shippers.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536550_russia_freight_transport_report_q1_20 ..
The second theme we highlight in Russia's freight sector in 2013 is the impact the preparation for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games will have. With just over a year to go, the completion stage of venues is not far off - the role of freight transport in the transport of raw materials for construction is coming to an end, and the next stage of specific sports logistics needs is coming into play. We also expect an uptick blip in Q413 and Q114 as last-minute preparations are made.
All freight sectors are set to benefit from Russia's hosting of the 2014 Winter Olympic Games, specifically those in the Krasnodar region. We highlight that port of Novorossiysk as a specific facility that will enjoy an Olympics-related boom in throughput.
The final theme is Russia's recent membership of the WTO. As President Vladimir Putin has highlighted the benefits of an uptick in trade volumes won't be felt straight away, but we believe Russia's freight transport sector will start to fill a positive impact over the medium term.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.2%
* 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 3.7%
* 2013 Port of Novorossiysk throughput is forecast to grow by 9.9%
* 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%
* 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 3%
* 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 5.9%
Key Industry Trends
Sistema Breaks Into Rail Freight
The acquisition of SG-Trans sees Sistema finally have some success in Russia's rail freight privatisation drive. The company participated in the tender for Evraz-Trans, the transportation unit of steel firm Evraz, but lost out to NefteTransService (NTS) and had also wished to bid for 25% of First Cargo Company (also known as Freight One), which state-owned Russian Railways (RZD) was selling. Sistema was, however, not permitted to participate in the auction, as it was told that it did not meet the requirements, something that Sistema later contested. The 25% stake in First Cargo Company was sold to Lisin's Universal Cargo Logistics, which already owns the other 75% stake in the company.
NTS Acquisition Drive To Pique Investor Interest
NefteTransService (NTS) is bolstering its dry bulk operations, setting its sights on acquiring MMK-Trans, the transport unit of steelmaker MMK. This marks a further expansion of NTS strategy to increase its role in Russia's dry bulk logistics supply chain, with the firm close to completing its purchase of another dry bulk rail freight firm, Evraztrans. NTS' tactic is one of expansion, and is a strategy which will no doubt drive up interest in the firm, should it move forward with its plans to float in 2013.
APMT Involvement Boosting Connectivity
APMT's stake in Russia's Global Ports Investment (GPI) is, as BMI predicted, already starting to have a positive impact on GPI's ports connectivity. APMT's sister company, the container carrier Maersk Line, has added the GPI-operated container terminal at the port of Vostochny to its Transpacific 7 (TP7) service.
Risks to Outlook
As highlighted above, Russia's freight transport sector is exposed to three developments which offer upside risk to our projections. Other areas we have covered in previous reports that also offer upside risk over the medium term are the development of the Asia-Europe Landbridge, which specifically offers upside risk to our medium-term forecasts for freight and the country's preparation for its role as host of the FIFA World Cup in 2018.
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