New market study, "Spain Agribusiness Report Q1 2012", has been published

2012-02-17 17:15:59 - New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Spain Agribusiness Report Q1 2012"

BMI View: Continued credit tightening in Spain will be the main limitation to expanding production in the country's agriculture sector in the medium-to-long term. We expect exports to moderate in 2012 in line with this dynamic. Overall, we are most optimistic over 2011/12 grains production, as abundant rainfall and relatively high temperatures have resulted in excellent yields which have kept output robust.

Key forecasts

* Sugar production to 2015/16: -50.0% to 2.0mn tonnes. This decline will largely come from an influx of cheaper Latin American sugar into the EU market following the WTO's directive that the EU open up its domestic market to foreign sugar. Another important driver will be the gradual decline of EU sugar subsidies, which enabled the sector

to compete for decades.
* Corn production to 2015/16: 11.5% to 4.0mn tonnes. Corn's growing importance as a bioethanol feedstock will play a part in driving continued growth.
* Pork production to 2015/16: 8.3% to 3.7mn tonnes. Growth will be buoyed by export opportunities and the importance of pork in the local diet.
* 2012 GDP growth: -0.5% (from 0.7% growth in 2011)
* 2012 consumer price index: 2.0% (from 1.3% in 2011)

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/329474_spain_agribusiness_report_q1_2012.asp ..

Industry Developments

The appearance of bluetongue disease in cattle poses a small downside risk to our beef production outlook. About 10 cases of the viral disease have been discovered in cattle at Malpartida de Plasencia as of December 2011, but there have been no deaths.

We have revised up our forecasts for the 27 European Union member states (EU-27)'s wheat production in 2011/12. This should boost the bloc's production balance and help rebuild depleted stocks, as exports are forecast to be lower following the Black Sea region's return to the export market. The EU-27 is the world's largest wheat producer and one of the largest exporters, meaning its output is likely to have a significant impact on prices. However, we do not expect the EU-27 to repeat the large wheat exports expected for 2011/12. Indeed, the Black Sea region has returned impressively to export markets, with 40mn tonnes of wheat exports expected in 2011/12, 75.4% higher than in 2010/11 and accounting for 30.3% of global exports. Despite EU-27 production remaining stagnant in 2011/12, we are now forecasting a global wheat market surplus of 7mn tonnes in 2011/12, after a large 13mn tonnes deficit in 2010/11. The return to surplus should push global stocks well above their 10-year average.

The European Commission's plan to abolish sugar production quotas as part of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform should help resolve the EU-27 sugar shortage problems in the long term. In fact, the EU, once the largest sugar exporter, spent about EUR5.2bn (US$7.1bn) since 2006 to shrink its sugar industry after the WTO ruled its subsidized supply on world markets constituted dumping. The main measure taken to achieve this objective was the implementation of annual sugar production quotas. These quotas significantly pushed production down, with EU-27 sugar production falling 24.9% between 2005/06 and 2010/11. In line with this, we forecast production to decrease again by 1.9% to 15.8mn tonnes in 2011/12. We see the EU-27 production deficit reaching 4.3mn tonnes in 2011/12, compared to a 10-year average surplus of 272,000 tonnes.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Spain Agricultural SWOT
- Spain Political SWOT
- Spain Economic SWOT
- Spain Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
- Spain Dairy Outlook
- Spain Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Spain Cheese Production & Consumption,2011-2016
- Spain Milk Production & Consumption,2008-2012
- Spain Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Spain Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Spain Sugar Outlook
- Spain Sugar Production & Consumption
- Spain Sugar Production & Consumption
- Spain Livestock Outlook
- Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 20111-2016
- Spain Pork Production & Consumption,20111-2016
- Spain Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-20122
- Spain Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-20122
- Spain Beef & Veal Production & Consumption,2008-20122
- Spain Grains Outlook
- Spain Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Spain Barley Production & Consumption,2011-2016
- Spain Wheat Production & Consumption,2008-2012, 2008-2012
- Spain Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Spain Barley Production & Consumption,2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Update
- Corn
- Rice
- Soybean
- Wheat
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Palm Oil
- Sugar
Industry Forecast
- Consumer Outlook
- Economic Recovery Fragile
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Canned Food/Prepared Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts,2008-2016
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts,2008-2016
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts,2008-2016
Macroeconomic Forecast
- On The Cusp Of Recession
- Spain - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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