2013-03-19 13:23:33 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Uganda Infrastructure Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: 2012 was a disappointing year for Uganda's construction market, which was badly affected by high interest rates. We estimate that the sector expanded by just 3.5% year-on-year. The Central Bank raised interest rates aggressively in H211, in order to combat rocketing inflation and currency flight. The Central Bank Lending Rate (CBR) was hiked from 13% in July 2011 to a high of 23% in December that year. Since then rates have been progressively eased, with the loosening taking place in October 2012, when the CBR was reduced by 2%, to 13%. A further easing of monetary policy, together with the impetus generated by the impending construction of the 600-megawatt Karuma power project and other public sector initiatives, should
ensure a return to robust sector growth from 2013, when we expect the construction market to expand by 6.8% in real terms.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552416_uganda_infrastructure_report_q2_2013. ..
The key developments in the sector over the last quarter were:
* There are upside risks to our core forecast scenario, particularly in light of a faster-than-expected reduction of inflation (with September 2012 generating a substantial fall in both core and headline prices), which indicates that interest rates may come down at a faster rate than we anticipated. With regard to downside risks, Uganda will face several challenges over our 10-year forecast period to 2022, including popular unrest related to one-party rule, the need to overcome the legacy of civil war in the North and a lack of jobs for its youthful population. Despite this, we maintain a cautiously positive outlook on Uganda and foresee a relatively successful resolution of these challenges going forward.
* The Government has pledged to tackle power shortage in the country, and presented a long list of hydro and renewable power stations that have been lined up for construction. That said we note that risks remain prominent with corruption likely to delays and or stall efforts. In addition, additional reliance on hydropower will increase the country's exposure to weather conditions.
* China Road and Bridge Cooperation (CRBC) has won a tender to Tarmac the road from Moroto to Nakapiripiriti in the Karamoja region.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Table: Uganda Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2011 - 2016
- Table: Uganda Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2017 - 2022
- Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
- Table: East Africa Major Projects Table
- Energy And Utilities - Outlook And Overview
- East Africa Major Projects Table
- Table: East Africa Major Infrastructure Projects: Energy & Utilities
- Residential And Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
- Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Building
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Regional Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Sub-Saharan Infrastructure Business Environment ratings
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Number Of International Contractors In East Africa
Global Industry Overview
- Europe, Middle East and Africa
- Dubai Confidence Up, Mega-Spending Status Quo In The Region
- Low Yields Push Capital Further Into Infrastructure
- Turkey Shines As South Africa and Poland Struggle To Recover
- Natural Resource Boom Drives SSA Infrastructure Investment
- Latin America
- Table: Planned Elections: Latin America 2013
- Data Methodology
- Capital Investment
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
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