2013-12-13 09:13:53 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Political uncertainty will continue to mar any real progress in tackling funding shortages with which the Bulgarian healthcare system is grappling. While volume demand will continue to shape the development of the country's pharmaceutical market, we expect Bulgaria's wider operating environment to remain below par, in the short term at least.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.22bn (US$1.46bn) in 2012 to BGN2.32bn (US$1.58bn) in 2013; +4.5% in local currency terms and +7.9% in US dollar terms. Forecasts slightly lower in relation to Q4 2013 projections, on account of macroeconomic factors.
* Healthcare: BGN5.60bn (US$3.68bn) in 2012 to BGN5.70bn (US$3.87bn) in 2013; +1.8% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecasts slightly lower in relation to Q4 2013 projections,
on account of macroeconomic factors.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/751998_bulgaria_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_r ..
Risk/Reward Ratings: In Q1 2014, Bulgaria's Risks and Rewards scores stand firmly above the regional average. The scores take into account the challenges for drugmakers operating in Bulgaria, such as the downward pressure on the prices of drugs and the uncertain political outlook, in addition to positive factors, such as the increasing per capita consumption of medicines from a relatively low base.
Key Trends And Developments
* According to October 2013 statements made by Maya Manolova, the member of parliament (MP) from the Bulgarian Socialist party (BSP) and the deputy chairperson of the parliament, medicine prices rose 300% during the previous government's regime. Manolova stated that former health minister Desislava Atanasova's tenure was marred by the collapse of the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) and problems at public hospitals due to the government's inability to take corrective measures. Manolova added that illegal exports also became rampant.
* The Bulgarian healthcare sector will be able to use around BGN1bn (US$678.84mn) for the next programming period 2014-2020, according to August 2013 statements made by Bulgaria's health minister Tanya Andreeva. Zinaida Zlatanova, deputy prime minister of Bulgaria, managed to broker a deal with the European Commission related to the allotment of funds for medicines and healthcare, Andreeva said. These funds will be used in areas such as innovation, prevention, human resources and emergency treatment, Andreeva added.
BMI Economic View: Political instability in Bulgaria will continue to stifle private consumption and investment, weighing on headline growth through 2014. Despite government expenditures and a positive contribution from net exports propping up economic activity, real GDP growth is expected to be lukewarm at best. Additionally, recent signs of fiscal slippage in Bulgaria do not mean that the government of centre-left Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski is backtracking on the previous administration's consolidation drive. Even if the current coalition wanted to reverse painful austerity measures, the need for energy reform and broad-based disillusionment with the ruling elite will ensure the EU remains a crucial policy anchor.
BMI Political View: The mass protest movement that spurred early elections has largely subsided, though demonstrations are ongoing and anti-government sentiment remains pervasive. While a measured rebound in consumer and business sentiment should take hold in the remainder of H2 2013 and build momentum behind economic activity heading into 2014, lingering unrest and uncertainty will contribute to subdued headline GDP growth readings for several more quarters.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Table: Bulgaria Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Table: Bulgaria Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Members Of Bulgarian Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturers' Association (BGPharmA*), 2011
- Table: Bulgaria Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn), 2009-2017
- Table: Bulgaria Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (BGNmn), 2009-2017
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Economic Activity
- Table: bmi_country} - Gdp By Expenditure
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Bulgaria Risk Reward Ratings
- Bulgaria's Pharmaceutical RRRs
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population)
- Communicable Diseases
- Table: Reported Cases Of HIV/AIDS, 2002-2009
- Healthcare Sector
- Healthcare Insurance
- Healthcare Reform Through To 2020
- Healthcare Financing
- Table: NHIF Budget
- Research & Development
- Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2011
- Clinical Trials
- Pharmaceutical Advertising
- Intellectual Property Environment
- Pricing Regime
- Drug Policy Amendments
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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