2013-12-25 21:36:34 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Our outlook for the Iranian freight transport sector in 2014 is that the country will begin to see a return to growth in volumes, in part due to base effects, and in part due to the more moderate stance adopted by new President Rouhani, and the potential loosening of sanctions against the country. Although the ports and shipping continue to face significant challenges, rail freight continues to see strong investment.
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 port of Bandar Abbas throughput is forecast to return to growth at 3.1%, and to average 6.0% to 2018.
* 2013 road freight volumes forecast to grow by 4.6% and are projected to average 7.3% over the forecast period to 2018.
* 2014 rail freight tonnes-km
is forecast to grow by 1.9%, and is projected to average 2.9% growth per annum over the forecast period to 2018.
* 2014 air freight tonnes-km is forecast to grow by 0.6% and to average growth of 1.0% a year to 2018.
* 2014 total trade is forecast to experience a real growth of 5.5% in 2014, and average 4.7% to 2018.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754557_iran_freight_transport_report_q1_2014 ..
Key Industry Trends
IRISL Scores A Hollow Victory: BMI notes with interest that Iranian shipping company IRISL, formerly Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, may have the European Union (EU) sanctions against it lifted before the close of 2013, following a September decision by the body's courts that they are based on insufficient evidence. We caution, however, that even if the EU sanctions are lifted little will have in reality changed for the beleaguered shipping line, with US sanctions still firmly in place, along with the more general limitations on interaction with the Iranian state.
Iran To Link With Iraq: According to Iranian Railways Company Managing Director Abdol-Ali Saheb-Mohammadi, Iran's city of Khoramshar, in the province of Khuzestan, is to be linked by rail to the Iraqi city of Basra in three years.
Qeshm Air To Build Fleet: According to Babak Zanjani, owner of Iranian air company Qeshm Air, the airline is set to add 39 aircraft to its fleet in the coming year. Head of Iran Civil Aviation Organization Hamidreza Pahlevani said in March that nineteen airplanes were added to Iran's air fleet last year, meaning that the Qeshm Air fleet development would be a major move for the Iranian air sector, potentially providing a significant boost to Iranian air freight volumes.
Key Risks To Outlook
There are numerous risks to our outlook and forecasts for Iran, largely stemming from the country's alleged nuclear weapons development programme, and the effect the Western sanctions targeting this have on the country's trade and economy. Should these be strengthened still further, or should Iran return to negotiations in a significant manner and sanctions are slackened, then upside or downside risk elements could come into play. The election of a new, moderate President in the form of Hassan Rouhani in June 2013 offers scope for a more rapid return to the negotiating table than under the administration of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight, 2011-2018
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
- Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
- Table: Iran's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Iran's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Rail Freight
- Air Freight
- Maritime Freight
- Iran Air Cargo
- Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
- Industry News
- Table: Possible Scenarios & Potential Impacts As Diplomacy Advances
- Scenario One: Gradual improvements But Immediate Breakthrough Unlikely
- Scenario Two: Breakthrough
- Scenario Three: Tactical Move By Tehran Leads To Breakdown
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Challenges And Threats To Stability
- Table: Iran Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Variance Across Product Markets
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Iran - Economic Activity
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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