2013-09-18 08:57:16 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
We forecast that Iran will endure another year of recession in 2013, with real GDP set to undergo a contraction of 2.0% following our 2012 estimate of a 3.4% contraction. Container shipping is set to take another hit as since the introduction of strengthened US sanctions on July 1 all major shipping lines have now ceased calling at Iranian ports. Even regional shipping lines such as Simatech Shipping have now shied away from the market. As a result we now forecast an even greater decline in box throughput at Bandar Abbas, 25.0%, compared with our previous projection of an 18.0% drop in box handling at the facility.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to decline by
25.0% before returning to growth in 2014.
* 2017 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 1.82mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - not enough to match 2011 volumes.
* 2013 total trade is forecast to endure a contraction of 20.5%.
Full Report Details at
Key Industry Trends
Iran Shipping Lines Hit By US Sanctions: Iran Shipping Lines in July confirmed that the scope of its operations has been scaled back. The company has been forced to discontinue its trade routes between Europe, East Asia and the Persian Gulf, after the service lines were blocked by US sanctions restricting USIran trade.
Cosco, China Shipping Drop Iran Service:
The Chinese shipping services providers Cosco Container Lines and China Shipping Container Lines at the start of July both confirmed that they were to cease operations in Iran. The decision was made after the US government announced new sanctions on the country, which came into force on July 1 2013.
Key Risks To Outlook
The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear energy development programme - which the Iranians insist is not related to the development of weapons - elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. However, it is uncertain how much longer Iran can continue in the current manner given its dire economic outlook and were a reversal to be made - and sanctions lifted - this could create risk to our economic and port throughput forecasts. The election of a new, more liberal, government in June 2013 could mean a return to the negotiating tables sooner rather than later.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Bandar Abbas Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
- Iran Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
- Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
- Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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