2013-02-26 01:42:27 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Pakistan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: Successive energy shortages in Pakistan have led the government to acknowledge that longterm gas self-sufficiency has become impossible. Domestic consumption continues to rise rapidly, boosted by the start-up of additional gas-fired power stations and continued use of Condensate Natural Gas cars. As import volumes rise, LNG is set to become part of the energy mix. In the meantime, Pakistan will again attempt to privatise more of its various state-controlled energy companies and stimulate investment in domestic oil and gas production. While we do not believe it would render Pakistan gas self-sufficient over the next 10 years, the recent start-up of shale gas exploration creates a large upside risk to our forecast.
The main trends and developments we highlight for
Pakistan's Oil & Gas sector are:
Full Report Details at
* Energy minister Asim Hussein has acknowledged that the current situation in Pakistan requires policy rationalisation. Several steps have been taken including a rise in regulated gas prices, a revamp of licensing regulation to promote exploration and distribution of production in local markets, the offer of 60 onshore blocks in a licensing round, offshore and unconventional exploration, and development of necessary import infrastructures.
* We expect gas reserves to fall until 2022 as consumption increases from 39bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 55bcm by the end of the forecast period. Production will not follow that trend. We see gas output peaking at 40.1bcm in 2015 and falling afterward to slightly above 35bcm by 2021 as the Sui Gas Field, the main producing field in Pakistan, reaches the end of its life.
* We see oil demand rising from an estimated 376,600 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to nearly 482,000b/d in 2022, about 30,000b/d more than previously forecast. While we expect production to continue its increase throughout the decade, this will leave the county with a growing import requirement. From 62,000b/d in 2011, we see oil output growing steadily until 73,500b/d in 2022.
* LNG imports will start throughout 2013. The government expects to import 2bcm of LNG in 2013, acquired on the spot market and arriving at Port Qasim. International supply contracts are to be allocated for up to 8bcm in the coming years, while discussions have reportedly already started with the US and Qatar.
* The controversies surrounding the IP and TAPI pipelines continue, with the US providing increasing support for Pakistan to support its energy needs through LNG imports. At the same time, Iran continues to build its section of the IP pipeline and Iranian firms are proposing to build the Pakistani section. We do not believe that LNG imports will be sufficient and we hardly envisage a scenario where neither pipeline is built by the end of the decade.
* Crude oil import costs in 2013 are estimated at US$12.2bn, based on an OPEC basket oil price averaging US$104.40/bbl. With net imports reaching 408,000b/d in 2022, we expect the oil import bill for Pakistan to amount to US$15bn. Similarly, large gas imports imply a bill of US$9.5bn.
* Finally, we highlight two main limitations in our forecast. Firstly we are not taking into consideration the potential impact of the start of shale gas exploration. The EIA estimates Pakistan's unconventional resources to be more than 1.4trn cubic metres (tcm). Secondly, the country will become increasingly sensitive to changes in energy prices. Global price fluctuation is likely to have a large impact on the country's demand and energy efficiency.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Pakistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Short-Term Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Pakistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Pakistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Pakistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Pakistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Pakistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Pakistan Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
- Table: Pakistan Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Pakistan Risk/Reward Ratings
- Regional Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
- Upstream Hindrance
- Crude Requirement
- Gasifying Asia
- Table: Table: Asia O&G Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Pakistan Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Pakistan Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Pakistan
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
- Table: Key Players - Pakistan Oil & Gas Sector
- Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL)
- Pakistan Petroleum (PPL)
- Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
- Pakistan Oilfields
- Shell Pakistan
- Other Companies - Summary
- Regional Energy Market Overview
- Table: List of Selected LNG Liquefaction Terminals In Australia and PNG
Global Industry Overview
- Global Energy Market Overview - Q1 2013
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
- Inflection point
- New Frontiers In Production
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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