2013-12-13 09:47:16 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Poland Petrochemicals Report Q1 2014"
The Polish petrochemicals industry has taken advantage of increased export demand in order to overcome deficiencies in the local market. As it approaches the likely completion of restructuring and divestment, we believe the industry is looking to greater diversification of production, thereby boosting its competitiveness and adding value.
Recent investments have been targeting the polyester and polyurethane chains and now producers are looking at expanding capacities in plasticisers and high value conversion of polymers. Growth in investment and output in the face of a continued domestic slowdown in demand proves that the Polish petrochemicals industry is meeting the challenge of expanding its external market presence.
In the first nine months of 2013, plastic output grew 20.9% y-o-y to 2.06mn tonnes with polyethylene
(PE) up 15.9% to 267,000 tonnes, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) up 23.2% to 234,000 tonnes and polypropylene (PP) up 12.9% to 197,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, synthetic rubber output was up 2.2% to 146,000 tonnes. Output strengthened considerably after May, barring a shutdown in July. Stronger plastics performances helped lift ethylene output by 18.2% y-o-y to 376,000 tonnes and propylene output up 15.3% to 267,000 tonnes. Local manufacturers attempted to compensate for weaker domestic demand with increased exports.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723613_poland_petrochemicals_report_q1_2014. ..
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* BMI's automotive team anticipates a 2.4% contraction in automotive output in 2014 following a slump of 17.2% in 2013 with a slow recovery in following years. We do, however, remain positive about the long-term growth potential in Poland's manufacturing segment and for plastics suppliers to the automotive industry, the slump in local demand will mean a greater focus on export markets with France and Germany obvious destinations for exports, as well as CEE markets.
* The Polish residential and non-residential construction sector declined 3.2% in 2013. However, there is growing optimism in the segment, where we forecast average growth of 2.5% y-o-y during the 2014-2018 forecast period. As a result, construction-related materials - especially poly vinyl chloride (PVC) - will experience growth in demand.
* The agribusiness sector will be the strongest industrial consumer in the petrochemicals industry, although poor grain production is weighing on farmers' incomes with a resulting reduction in fertiliser demand. We believe more fertilisers produced in Poland will be sold locally instead of for export, reinforcing our view that domestic consumption growth will be strong over the long term.
* Poland's score is 59.4 out of 100 this quarter, unchanged since the previous quarter.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
- Economic Analysis
- Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: Poland - GDP by Expenditure
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Poland Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Merger and Acquisition
- PKN Orlen strategy 2013-2017
- Capacity expansions
- Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen)
- Grupa Lotos
- Europe Overview
- Declining capacities
- Table: European cracker capacities, 2013
Global Industry Overview
- A Stable 2013, Leading to Growth in 2014?
- Table: Top 10 ethylene producers, 2013
- Long-term growth
- Shale: The Future of Feedstock?
- Threats to growth
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Variance Across Product Markets
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Risks To Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
- Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Risk Reward Rating Methodology
- Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward RATING Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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