2013-02-21 09:08:38 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Nigeria Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013"
BMI View: With several projects in the pipeline or due to come onstream over the next few years, such as Usan (180,000b/d) and Egina (150,000-200,000b/d), we expect Nigerian oil output to rise substantially over our forecast period to 2021. In addition, attempts to cut gas flaring will boost the outlook for gas production. Nevertheless, OPEC quotas, the risk of project delays and Nigeria's political environment, particularly vis-a-vis the PIB, still imply a significant amount of uncertainty.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Nigeria's Oil and Gas sector are as follows:
* We have downgraded our 2012 oil production estimates, due to severe weather conditions, which have cause flooding in the vast majority of Nigeria's oil infrastructure. Nigeria's oil production
dropped at least 20% in the weeks of October 2012, owing to severe flooding and oil theft, according to a statement by government oil officials on October 24 2012. Severe flooding led to a loss of nearly 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) of oil output in October 2012, according to an industry regulator. The country's production, including crude and condensate, dropped to nearly 2.1-2.2mn b/d in the week ended October 20 2012, compared with an average of 2.5mn b/d in 2011. Therefore we now estimate that for the year 2012, total oil production decreased to 2.2mn b/d in relation to our previous estimates of 2.5mn b/d. Consequently, Nigeria's export potential for 2012 is expected to fall to 1.9mn b/d.
* BMI expects oil production to increase from an estimated 2.2mn b/d in 2012 to 2.62mn b/d by 2021, as ambitious projects such as Usan (180,000b/d) and Egina (150,000b/d-200,000b/d) come onstream. * Consumption of crude is forecast to rise at an annual average of 6.29% rate between 2011 and 2021, boosted by anticipated strong GDP growth. We forecast consumption rising from an estimated 286,000b/ d in 2011 to 549,000b/d by 2021.
* BMI forecasts gas production increasing from an estimated 34.71bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 82.61bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start monetising associated gas resources.
* Gas demand is set to rise at an annual average growth rate of 8.6%. Booming demand from the government's ambitious power sector plans and large export engagements will thus bolster production growth. We see Nigerian gas consumption rising from an estimated 5.22bcm in 2011 to 13.2bcm by 2021.
* Nigerian oil reserves are forecast to peak at about 40.1bn barrels in 2015-2016, before coming down to 36.00bn barrels by 2021, whereas gas reserves are expected to peak at 5.95trn cubic metres (tcm) in the 2014-2019 period, before falling back to 5.80tcm in 2021.
* In terms of infrastructure, the authorities have ambitious plans in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refining. However, the downstream sector remains highly inefficient and, despite a nameplate capacity of 505,000b/d, actual output is often around 100,000b/d. Many projects have been proposed, but there has been no update indicating that any are progressing. Considering the country's past woes in the sector, we have decided not to include these projects in our forecasts.
* In November 2012, China-based China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) finalised an agreement with Total, to acquire the French major's oil blocks onshore Nigeria. The deal with Sinopec is valued at about US$2.4bn, the proceeds of which Total will direct towards oil and gas projects, as it is seeking to sell assets worth US$15-20bn during 2012-2014. On the other hand, this deal will increase Sinopec's recoverable oil reserves in Nigeria.
* Nigeria National Petroleum Cooperation (NNPC) is aiming to more than double its annual production of LNG, from 22mn tonnes per annum (mtpa) (30.36bn cubic metres) to over 52mtpa (71.76bcm). This was announced on September 19 2012, at a forum of LNG producers and consumers held in Japan. Group managing director of NNPC, Andrew Yakubu, gave no deadline as to when this target would be met, but he did clarify that new LNG projects in Nigeria will help the company meet this goal.
* In October 2012, Nigeria's Petroleum Minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke, announced that the government is planning to direct more than US$1.6bn towards the repair of three of its refineries. The maintenance work, aimed at bringing the refineries to full capacity, is likely to start in January 2013, with completion due in October 2014. The three refineries are located in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna respectively. The Port Harcourt refinery is non-operational, while the other two refineries have been operating at about 25% capacity as of July 2012.
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Nigeria's dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country's export revenues. Our assumptions of tight supply, due to booming demand in emerging markets, is clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we forecast OPEC basket oil prices to remain elevated and average US$107.05 per barrel (bbl) in 2012, a figure similar to the 2011 average of US$107.52/bbl in 2012.
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