2014-01-26 15:50:26 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Nigeria has the potential to be a major petrochemicals producer in Africa, but is held back by the infrastructural problems and major political challenges, according to BMI's latest Nigeria Petrochemicals Report. While plans are afoot to raise polymers and fertiliser capacities, these are susceptible to delays and cancellations.
In 2013, Nigeria had olefins production capacities of 550,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene and 125,000tpa propylene with thermoplastic resins capacities of 240,000tpa linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and 95,000tpa polypropylene (PP).
One of the many problems facing the Nigerian petrochemical industry is the lack of competitively priced and reliable feedstock supplies. While Nigeria is only just beginning to tap into its potential in natural gas, which can serve as an important source of competitively
priced feedstock, the country's refining sector is still insufficient to process all of the nation's crude output or provide sufficient low-cost naphtha. The situation is likely to change if current plans are realised, with a massive growth in refinery, fertiliser and polymers capacities being proposed. However, the challenging investment environment may delay or lead to the cancellation of proposed projects.
Full Report Details at
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BMI has revised the following forecasts:
* With urea capacity set to exceed 5mntpa by 2018, Nigeria should become a major exporter of fertiliser, as well as ensuring self-sufficiency in the long-run. Africa will remain one of the lowest users of fertilisers in the world. However, we still see potential for growth, particularly in the context of base effects, as high grain prices are likely to improve incomes and allow for greater fertiliser use. Nigeria should come to dominate supply of fertiliser in the growing Sub-Saharan African market.
* The Nigerian polymers market will be largely fulfilled by imports with domestic capacities remaining small and operating well below capacity. Growth will be strong but from a low base as far as per capita consumption is concerned. Construction growth should help stimulate demand for PVC and plastic piping while agribusiness is also set to grow following a slump in 2013, leading to higher demand for fertiliser and packaging. On the downside, industrial growth in Nigeria will remain disappointing, thereby limiting opportunities for increased consumption of intermediate goods. As such, Nigeria's principal market growth areas will be in finished products.
* Nigeria comes last in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings for the Middle East and Africa with 36.6 points, up 0.4 points from 2013 due to moves to boost indigenous capacities. Nigeria lies in last place in our regional rankings, 4.0 points behind Algeria. The country could rise up the rankings if all plans come on stream as expected, but bearing in mind past disappointment BMI remains circumspect about Nigeria's ability to deliver capacity growth in a highly challenging investment environment. Despite the country's obvious potential, there are a multitude of structural problems to overcome before investors can take Nigeria seriously.
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