2013-02-27 03:13:46 - Fast Market Research recommends "Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

Executive Summary

BMI View: Increasing complaints from the telecoms regulator and mobile phone users over poor Q0S issues support our view that network quality and coverage, as opposed to price, will be a defining competitive factor in Nigeria's mobile market as it approaches saturation. We therefore expect a significant proportion of mobile operators' capex in 2013 to go towards boosting existing network capacity to cope with expected increases in subscriptions and usage over the next few years. Meanwhile, the government has an ambitious broadband penetration target of 20% by 2017. Although this is not unattainable, we believe it could be missed by a wide margin if obstacles that presently hold back investments in broadband infrastructure are not dealt with.


Full Report Details

at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541244_nigeria_telecommunications_report_q1_ ..


Key Data

* The mobile market grew 4.8% in Q312 to bring total growth in 9M12 to 11.8%.
* Market weighted blended ARPU fell by 10.8% in Q312.
* The fixed-line sector contracted by 8.9% in Q312 to bring total decline in 9M12 to 34.1%.

Risk/Reward Ratings

Nigeria is ranked second on BMI's Q113 Risk/Reward ratings (RRR) table for Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria scores above the regional average in all four categories of our ratings, although a high rate of unemployment, weak social infrastructure and relatively low GDP per capita contribute to a weak Country Rewards score. Nigeria's population and rapid subscriber growth contribute to a high score the Industry Rewards category but this is counterbalanced by a weak subscriber mix and declining ARPUs. Meanwhile, a positive private consumption growth outlook, based on strong macroeconomic fundamentals, was a major boost to Nigeria's Country Risk rating in this quarter's update.

Key Trends And Developments

In December 2012, Airtel Nigeria successfully completed its first 4G LTE trial, according to the company's CEO, Rajan Swaroop. This is a significant step towards the commercial roll-out of the LTE technology. However, we do not expect LTE services to take off any time soon. Apart from the lack of sufficient spectrum to deploy 4G services on a commercial basis, we believe Airtel and its rivals - MTN, Globacom and Etisalat - are more likely to focus on fully utilising the capacity on their 3G/HSPA+ networks. That said, there is considerable risk to this view. The most notable risk is the plan by CAPCOM, the newly formed entity from the merger of CDMA operators Starcomms, MultiLinks and MTS Wireless, to refarm its existing spectrum for LTE services. If the firm is successful over the next few months, then we would expect the mobile operators to respond by stepping up their 4G plans to retain their competitive advantage in the wireless data market.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Mobile
- Wireline
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecast
- ARPU
- Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical data & Forecast
- Fixed-Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecast
- Broadband
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Industry Rewards
- Country Risks
- Country Rewards And Industry Risks
- Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Rewards Rating, Q113
- Nigeria - Q1 2013
Market Overview
- Mobile - Q1 2013
- Table: Nigeria Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2011
- Table: Mobile Market, September 2012
- Table: CDMA Mobile Market, September 2012
- ARPU
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Selected VAS Services
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Market Overview
- Table: MTN
- Table: Globacom
- Table: Airtel
- Table: Etisalat
- Table: M-Tel
- Table: CDMA Operators
- Telecoms - Mobile VAS In Africa
- Indigenous VAS Take Centre Stage
- Global Content Providers Adapt To Gain Relevance
- Telecoms Crossovers Still In Play
- Outlook Is Positive But Not Without Risk
- Fixed Line - Q1 2013
- Table: Fixed-Line Data, 2010 - 2012
- Broadband - Q1 2013
- Table: Fixed-Line And Broadband Contract Wins And Developments
Industry Trends And Developments
Regulatory Development
- Table: Nigeria: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Table: Nigeria: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Table: Nigeria: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators, 2005-2011
Company Profile
- NITEL
- MTN
- Airtel
- Globacom
- Etisalat Nigeria
Regional Overview
- Regional Vendor Profile - RIM Bets On Africa
- Recent Financial Performance
- Investor Confidence Takes A Hit
- Africa Beckons
- Opportunities And Risks
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

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