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Now Available: Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q1 2014


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2014-01-05 00:50:30 - New Construction market report from Business Monitor International: "Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q1 2014"

We continue to forecast a contraction in Bulgaria's construction industry in 2013, estimated at 3.6%. This is supported by official data indicating a contraction of 3.8% in H113. The industry's recession, which started in 2009 and experienced a record low of -17.9% in 2010, has continued throughout 2013. However, we believe that the worst could now be over. Signs of growth are expected in the transport sub-sector from 2014, for which we forecast positive growth of 3.4% (as a result of low base effects), mostly driven by road and railway projects. This leads us to forecast a return to growth in the overall construction sector from 2014.

Key developments in Bulgaria's infrastructure sector:

* The municipality of Sofia and the European

Investment Bank (EIB) signed a EUR50mn (US$68.97mn) loan agreement in October 2013 to fund a transport infrastructure programme in Sofia, during the period 2013-2016. The project includes construction, reconstruction, expansion and rehabilitation works for 22 small road schemes in the capital, totalling around 56km. Tram tracks and catenaries will also be modernised.
* Additional sections of the Struma motorway development project secured EUR274mn (US$359.48mn) in financial assistance from the European Commission. Work comprises the construction of a dual carriageway between Dolna Dikanya and Blagoevgrad, and from Sandanski to the border crossing with Greece at Kulata. The three sections - lots 1, 2 and 4 - cover 68.5km and are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2015. Work is also due to include preparation for the construction of the Blagoevgrad-Sandanski section (lot 3), entailing tunnels bypassing the Kresna gorge.
* However, infrastructure projects in Bulgaria continue to face strong headwinds due to the lack of investor confidence and endemic corruption. We only forecast positive growth to return to the construction industry in 2014 with 1.4% real growth, after five years of recession.
* Despite signs of stabilisation in the labour market, employment levels are well below previous years, and the unemployment rate remains near a multi-year peak. We do not expect a significant acceleration of employment growth in coming quarters, preventing any rapid rebound in consumption even if consumer sentiment were to improve further. Further weighing on households' ability and willingness to spend is ongoing weakness in the housing market, which is once again seeing home values falling on a y-o-y basis. With one of the highest home ownership rates in the world, this will be a significant impediment to stronger private consumption over the medium term.
* Our Country Risk team anticipates that political instability is likely to be prolonged, posing a downside risk to our forecast for the construction industry. A negative investor sentiment towards the country will particularly affect the commercial property market (retail and office space) and macro-infrastructure projects, for which the government has no capacity to fund.

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754704_bulgaria_infrastructure_report_q1_201 ..

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Infrastructure SWOT
Industry Forecast
- Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: Bulgaria Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
- Table: Bulgaria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data And Forecasts
- Table: Bulgaria Transport Infrastructure Industry Data And Forecasts
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Major Projects Table - Transport
- Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
- Table: Bulgaria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: Bulgaria Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
- Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
- Table: Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
- Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview
- Table: Bulgaria Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data
- Table: Bulgaria Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Bulgaria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
- Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
- Table: EQS Table
Company Profile
- Glavbolgarstroy
- Mott MacDonald
Global Infrastructure Overview
- Global Industry Overview
- Table: Latin America PPP Round-Up
Methodology
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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