2012-09-04 08:49:56 - Fast Market Research recommends "Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: Bulgaria's mobile market is close to saturation, with mobile growth slowing down to single digits during the last three years and mobile penetration reaching 161% by Q112, according to BMI data. We expect mobile network operators to increasingly focus on advanced data services to boost revenue growth amid intense price competition in the voice segment. Meanwhile, we expect consolidation in the mobile and fixed-line sectors to attract much needed capital for network investment and the roll-out of next generation access networks.

Key data

* Mobile growth slowed in Q112 compared to the latter part of 2011 as the seasonal effects of on growth and promotional activities in Q311 and Q411 wore off.
* We revised up our fixed-line forecast

to reflect new market data that show the market recorded positive growth in 2010 and 2011.
* Our broadband forecast increased after the country's mobile network operators reported strong take-up of mobile broadband services.
* Bulgaria's ARPU fell sharply in Q112 as operators reacted to slow subscriber growth with lower tariffs and promotional activities to boost subscriptions.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451210_bulgaria_telecommunications_report_q4 ..


Risk/Reward Ratings

Bulgaria remains in the 11th position on our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table in this quarter's update, with no change to its aggregate score from the previous quarter or its ratings in any of our four ratings categories. Bulgaria scores below the regional average in all four of our ratings categories, while the country's aggregate score of 46.7 is 2.3pts below the overall regional average. Bulgaria's lowest rating is in the Industry Rewards category where a combination of declining subscriber growth and rapidly falling ARPU are among factors impacting on its ratings.

Key Trends And Developments

Bulgaria's telecoms market was dominated by reports of consolidation during the first half of 2012. Russia's VTB Capital and Bulgaria's Corporate Commercial Bank are the latest investors to express in incumbent operator Vivacom. Other bids are from Icelandic billionaire Thor Bjorgolfsson and Pamplona Capital Management, a UK-based private equity group. Meanwhile, in June 2012, Greek incumbent OTE said it plans to sell its Bulgarian unit Globul. Globul is Bulgaria's second biggest mobile operator by subscribers and the entry of new core investors changes the dynamics of the mobile market.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Bulgaria Mobile SWOT
- Bulgaria Wireline SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
- Bulgaria
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- ARPU
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU (BGN) - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Overview - Mobile
- Regional Perspective
- Bulgaria Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
- Key Developments
- Mobile Growth
- Title: Bulgaria Mobile Market Growth, 2010-2012
- Market Share
- Usage (MOU/ARPU)
- MVNOs
- Networks
- 3G
- Mobile Content/Value-Added Services
- Mobile Operator Data
- Table: Market Overview
- Table: Mobiltel
- Table: Globul
- Table Vivacom
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Fixed Line
- Broadband
- Cable
- WiMAX
- IPTV And FTTx
- Mobile Broadband
Industry Trends And Developments
- Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments
- Table: Wireline Developments (2008-2010)
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: VAS Timeline
Regulatory Environment
- Table: Bulgaria Regulatory Bodies And Responsibilities
- Legislation
- Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
- Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2003-2009
Operator Profiles
- Vivacom
- Mobiltel (M-Tel)
- Regional Overview
- Competitive Landscape - Huawei's CEE Adventures
- Leading Vendors' Financial Performance (US$mn), 2010-2011
Demographic Forecast
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Ratings System
- Indicators
- Table: Ratings Indicators
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Sources

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