2013-09-16 08:54:05 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
China's economy appears to be finally buckling under the weight of its credit binge. Despite record new credit issuance in recent months, the manufacturing sector has once again entered contraction in line with our view. Efforts to reform and rebalance are too little too late to avoid the hangover effects of past stimulus measures, and we believe that a recession is at hand, with negative knock-on effects for the freight transport sector.
BMI is sticking with a below-consensus 2013 growth forecast of 7.5%. The main risk to our economic outlook remains another collapse in external demand, such as the one that occurred at the height of the global financial crisis. Despite current stability in the global economy, China is at risk
from its huge trade imbalance with the US. The bilateral surplus that China runs with the US continues to balloon. Should we see a rise in the personal savings rate in the US, this could trigger a sharp drop in consumer goods imports, with negative implications for the country's freight transport sector.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673223_china_freight_transport_report_q4_201 ..
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 air freight tonnes/km is expected to grow by 2.5%.
* 2013 rail freight tonnes/km is forecast to contract by 2.5%.
* 2013 Port of Shanghai throughput is forecast to grow by 4.2%.
* 2013 road freight tonnes/km is forecast to grow by 10.5%.
Key Industry Trends
Chinese Air Carriers Seek High-End Cargo As Competition Grows
Chinese airlines are growing concerned about growing competition from road and rail freight. In July 2013 China posted its latest road network development plan for the period from 2013 to 2030 that aims at same day delivery for shipments moving a distance less than 1,000 kilometres. The initiative has put pressure on the air cargo industry in addition to China's railway sector, which is also focussing on express delivery. Chinese Rail Volumes Down 3%
The volume of freight carried on China's railways declined 2.8% year on year during the January-June period, official data showed. Chinese railroads transported 1.94bn tonnes of cargo in the first half of the year, down 55.07mn tonnes from the volume seen in the same period last year, according to statistics from China Railway Corporation.
Shenzhen Set To Overtake Hong Kong
A relatively strong start to 2013 has led BMI to revise up its container throughput forecast for China's second largest box port the port of Shenzhen. This strong start has been achieved despite a weakening in the global outlook, which Shenzhen, as China's second largest export hub for containers, is exposed to. The impact of the Pearl River Delta curse also appears to be subsiding, as the port aims to keep pace with the trend of manufacturing moving inland by offering rail connections.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight
- Inland Waterway
- Table: Inland Waterway Freight
- Table: Rail Freight
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight
- Table: Trade Overview
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011, Us$Mn
- Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011, Us$Mn
Industry Trends And Developments
- Air Freight
- Inland Waterways
- Jade Cargo International
- China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRCTC)
- China Southern (Cargo)
- CR Intermodal
- Daqin Railway Company
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- COSCO - Dry Bulk
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Poltiics
- Table: Political Overview
- Oil Price Outlook
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Crude Price Forecasts
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
- Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
- Weak Demand Persists
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
- Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
- Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
- Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
- Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
- Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
- Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: China - Economic Activity
- Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Transport Industry
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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