2013-02-24 15:19:55 - Fast Market Research recommends "Colombia Autos Report 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Colombia's auto industry experienced a disappointing 2012, with new vehicle sales falling 3% year-onyear (y-o-y) in the first 10 months of the year, to just 260,013 units, according to the Automotive Chamber of the National Business Association of Colombia (ANDI). BMI has become increasingly bearish on vehicle sales in the country over the course of the past year, estimating a fall of 3% in sales in 2012, based on a reduction in consumer spending brought about by tightening credit availability and the depreciation of the Colombian peso, which will make imported vehicles more expensive.
For 2013, however, BMI adopts a more bullish outlook, forecasting growth of 3% in vehicle sales, as the currency strengthens and private consumption growth picks up. Indeed,
BMI's Macroeconomic team believes that Colombia's economy will remain one of the best performing in Latin America in 2013, driven by strong levels of consumption and investment. Despite ongoing household deleveraging amid record high levels of household debt, we forecast real private consumption growth to come in at 4.0%, buoyed by supportive credit growth, a relatively strong currency and improvements in the labour market.
Full Report Details at
In addition, Colombia's attractive oil and gas, mining, and infrastructure sectors will continue to draw significant investment, further bolstering the country's economic performance. We therefore forecast real GDP growth to come in at 4.3% in 2013, broadly in line with our 2012 forecast of 4.4%.
Further underlining our upbeat stance towards the Colombian auto sector in 2013 was the news in December 2012 that the European Parliament has approved a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Peru and Colombia. It is expected that this agreement will take effect in Q113. BMI believes that this will boost autos imports from Europe to Peru and Colombia, providing some upside risk to our European production forecasts and sales outlooks for both Peru and Colombia. This follows the successful conclusion of another FTA with South Korea in June 2012, which should see a further increase in Korean auto imports into Colombia over the short to medium term.
To protect the local vehicle assembly industry, auto import tariffs will reportedly be reduced gradually, in line with FTAs signed between other countries. At the present time, General Motors, Renault, Mazda Motor and Daimler operate small-scale assembly plants within Colombia with a total capacity of around 200,000 units per annum. Looking forward, news that Japan is now seeking to enter into an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Colombia could see additional Japanese automakers looking to establish local production facilities in order to combat the current strength of the yen currency. Over the longer term, we believe that FTAs will facilitate greater investment in Colombia from its trading partners' auto manufacturers, which will support the country's development into a regional export hub. However, this will only occur over the longer term, and for now sales growth on the local market will continue to be met by import growth.
Report Table of Contents:
- Colombia Autos Industry SWOT
- Colombia Political SWOT Analysis
- Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis
- Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis
- Global Autos Update: Moderation Will Be Overarching Theme
- PASSENGER CAR SALES, UNITS, 2012
- Bullish On Mexico
- Comparative Weakness In The Productive Capacity Of Mexico's Regional Competitors
- The Continued Recovery Of The US Vehicle Market
- Positive Developments In The Domestic Supply Chain
- A Number Of Trade Agreements And Quotas Exist Amongst Mexico's Large Neighbours
- The Strength Of The Peso May Dampen Export Growth
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Colombia Autos Sector - Production, 2010-2017
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Colombia - Economic Activity, 2008-2016
- Market Overview
- Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Oct 2012)
- Passenger Cars
- Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Cars (H112)
- Commercial Vehicles
- Alternative Fuels
- Colmotores (GM)
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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