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Now Available: Colombia Business Forecast Report Q1 2014

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2014-01-03 11:23:59 - Fast Market Research recommends "Colombia Business Forecast Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available

We believe that Colombia's economy will expand at robust growth rates in the coming years, characterised by improved macroeconomic conditions and an increasingly friendly business environment.

Stronger private consumption will drive the majority of growth, although gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) will play an increasingly important role over the coming quarters.

The infrastructure, mining and hydrocarbons sectors are particularly well positioned for growth.

Major Forecast Changes

No Major Forecast Changes Since Last Update.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks: Elevated foreign investment inflows into the country following Colombia's upgrade to 'investment grade' by all three major ratings agencies could drive growth even faster than expected. In addition, a successful agreement during the ongoing

peace negotiations between the government and the country's main left-wing insurgent group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), would likely result in even greater foreign investment as risk perception improves.

Full Report Details at
- ..

Downside Risks: Another wave of labour strikes would pose significant downside risks to our export and real GDP growth outlook. Indeed, workers demanding higher wages and greater government support disrupted key exports such as coal throughout 2013, and another episode of industrial activity cannot be ruled out at this moment.

Partial Table of Contents:

executive summary
core Views
Major Forecast changes
Key risks to outlook
chapter 1: political outlook
sWot analysis
BMi political risk ratings
Domestic politics
santos Most Likely Winner in Highly uncertain election
- We believe that the most likely scenario is the re-election of President Juan Manuel Santos in Colombia's May 2014 election. However, a first round victory is highly unlikely, and a successful alliance among the supporters of former president Alvaro Uribe, one of Santos' fiercest critics, poses a significant threat to Santos' re-election.
taBLe: poLitica L oVerVie W
taBLe: poLL resuLts: Voting intentions By poLitica L aFF iLiation, %
Long- term political outlook
Many structural challenges ahead
- While Colombia's long-term political outlook is set to remain relatively stable compared with its neighbours, we identify several massive political challenges for the government over the next decade and highlight three scenarios for change.
chapter 2: economic outlook
sWot analysis
BMi economic risk ratings
economic activity
consumption and exports to Drive stronger growth in 2014
- We forecast real GDP growth in Colombia to accelerate from 4.3% in 2013 to 4.5% in 2014, driven by a strengthening consumer and a recovery in exports.
taBLe: econoMic actiVity
Fiscal policy
stronger revenue Will Drive Long-term Fiscal consolidation
- We believe that the Colombian government's ongoing fiscal consolidation drive will remain on track over the coming years, driven by an acceleration in revenue growth.
taBLe: Fisca L poLicy
Balance of payments
Stronger Exports Will Drive Narrower Current Account Deficit In 2014
- We forecast a narrowing of Colombia's current account deficit from 3.5% of GPD in 2013 to 2.7% in 2014, driven by a significant improvement in export growth.
taBLe: current account
Monetary policy
easing cycle over, tightening Begins in 2014
- We are revising up our end-2013 Colombian policy rate forecast from 3.00% to 3.25%, as an improving economy will prompt the Banco Central de la Republica to hold its benchmark rate at 3.25% through the rest of the year.
taBLe: M onetary poLicy
exchange rate policy
cop: additional Weakness Limited
taBLe: eXcHange rate
taBLe: currency F orecast
regional: sovereign risk ratings
credit Deterioration Has Largely run its course
- The deteriorati on in the credit profile of Latin American and Caribbean sovereigns seen over the course of 2013 has largely come as far as it will go after a substantial re-pricing of credit risk in the region.
taBLe: Latin aMerica soVereign ris K ratings-eVoLution oF aBiLity to pay
taBLe: Latin aMerica soVereign ris K ratings-eVoLution oF Wi LLingness to pay
chapter 3: 10- year Forecast
the colombian economy to 2022
sustainable and sturdy growth
- Business-friendly policies and a steadily improving security situation will help Colombia achieve sustainable levels of strong real GDP growth, which we forecast will average 4. 5% in 2014 -2 2. A surge in fixed investment will catalyse such growth over the coming years and we expect consumption to follow suit and remain the main driver of the Colombian growth story.
taBLe: Long- terM Macroecono Mic Forecasts
chapter 4: Business environment
sWot analysis
BMi Business environment risk ratings
Business environment outlook
taBLe: BM i Business anD operation ris K ratings
taBLe: BM i LegaL Fra MeWorK rating
taBLe: LaBour Force QuaLity
taBLe: Latin aMerica - annuaL FDi inFLoWs
Market orientation
taBLe: traDe anD inVest Ment ratings
operational risk
chapter 5: Key sectors
taBLe: construction inDustry anD inFrastructure inDustry Data
taBLe: construction anD inFrastructure inDustry Data
oil & gas
taBLe: oiL proDuction, consu Mption anD net eXports, 2011-2016
taBLe: oiL proDuction, consu Mption anD net eXports, 2017-2022
taBLe: gas proDuction, consu Mption anD net eXports, 2011-2016

Full Table of Contents is available at:

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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