2012-10-28 15:55:28 - Fast Market Research recommends "Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Denmark is hoping to avoid becoming an oil importer for another few years, despite declining near-term production. The government is confident the country will sustain its position as a net exporter of gas until the end of the decade, with some recovery in volumes likely over the medium term. Given the scale of the likely near-term fall in gas output, however, Denmark may experience a shortfall by 2013.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Denmark's oil and gas sector are:
* According to a 2011 Danish Energy Agency (DEA) statement dated March 28 2012, in 2020 half of the electricity consumption will come from wind power (currently 25%), and energy consumption will have decreased by more than
12% relative to 2006 levels. This is the basis of a new Danish Energy Agreement.
* DEA figures suggest that FY2011 gas production will have been 14% lower than in 2010, with further steep declines expected in 2012 and 2013, before volumes stabilise and begin to recover in 2014/2015. DEA projections show that Denmark is expected to be a net exporter of sales gas in the 11 years up to and including 2021, based on the expected production profile. However, by 2013, the output surplus is likely to be very modest. For gas, the development of new well technology and new discoveries may allow Denmark to maintain its position as a net exporter beyond 2030.
* BMI forecasts gas production of 5.2bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2021, compared with consumption of 4.8bcm. Modest exports are likely to come to a halt in 2022. The DEA's estimates are reliant on the successful implementation of new technologies that would significantly raise output from existing fields.
* The DEA's projections show that Denmark will continue to be a net exporter of oil until the end of 2018. The most recent five-year forecasts show declining production until 2014/15, when new fields are to be brought on-stream and the planned development of existing fields will have been completed. In the short term, oil production is forecast by BMI to decline to about 175,000b/d in 2014, before recovering in 2015/2016. By 2021, BMI is assuming 157,000b/d of oil production.
* The DEA points out that if the domestic oil producers succeed in raising the average field recovery factor by five percentage points (above an expected 23.6%) until 2035 and beyond, and if the DEA's expectations for the exploration potential are realised, Denmark will be able to maintain its position as a net exporter of oil until 2035.
* DONG Energy and Germany's Bayerngas have decided to jointly undertake the development of the Hejre field in the Danish North Sea at a cost of DKK12.1bn. DONG will spend DKK7.3bn (US$1.32bn) on the development, and make an additional investment of DKK2bn (US$360mn) to construct the Fredericia oil terminal to process oil from several fields, including Hejre. Commercial operations are expected to start in end-2015.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479423_denmark_oil_and_gas_report_q4_2012.as ..
Oil export revenues will fall from an estimated US$1.95bn in 2012 to US$1.66bn in 2016, with US$611mn of net imports expected by 2021. Gas revenues are estimated at US$343mn in 2012, recovering to US$511mn in 2016. This suggests that 2016 hydrocarbons export revenues will total US$2.17bn. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.10/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$93.25 and US$91.50/bbl respectively.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Denmark Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point
- Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Denmark Energy Market Overview
- Table: Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Denmark Oil & Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Denmark Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Oil and Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Denmark
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Pipelines/Terminals
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Downstream Risk/Rewards Ratings
- Denmark Upstream Rating - Overview
- Denmark Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Denmark Upstream Rating - Risks
- Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
- Denmark Downstream Rating - Overview
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Danish Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- DONG Energy
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Maersk Oil - Summary
- Hess - Summary
- Statoil - Summary
- Faroe Petroleum - Summary
- Noreco - Summary
- Others Summary
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption, 2014-2021 (000 b/d)
- Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production, 2014-2021 (000b/d)
- Table: Refinery Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
- Table: Refining Capacity, 2014-2021 (000b/d)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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