2013-01-30 08:39:54 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "France Real Estate Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

The France Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country in the context of continuing economic struggles.

Covering the entire country, with a data focus on the principal cities of Paris, Nice and Marseille, the report covers rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on a market already characterised by relative stagnation.

In general, prevailing economic sentiment in France remains subdued as consumers cut spending in the face of slow growth, high unemployment and austerity measures. A US$25bn package of tax increases and

spending cuts for 2012 and 2013 failed to defend France's AAA credit rating. As a result, despite certain bright spots such as high-end retail, we maintain a bearish outlook for France's commercial real estate sector.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529341_france_real_estate_report_q1_2013.asp ..


Key Points

* After four consecutive years of contraction in the French construction industry between 2008 and 2011, the sector is showing signs of a strong rebound in 2012. Industry figures for H112 indicate that the construction industry value grew a robust 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) (in nominal terms) during the first half of 2012 - this is significantly better than our earlier forecast, which anticipated 1.2% y-o-y growth for 2012 as a whole.
* The protracted resolution of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continues to weigh on domestic economic activity, with leading indicators now pointing towards stagnant growth for the last two quarters of 2012, and no suggestions that a robust recovery in 2013 will be forthcoming. While domestic pressure is mounting on President Francois Hollande to restore economic growth to France, policy-making to date has lacked a clear direction and done little to target growth or tackle any of France's structural imbalances. On its current trajectory, we do not expect the current policy mix to prove conducive to stimulating economic activity. Third party forecasts for growth have now shifted strongly towards our expectations for real GDP growth in 2012 to be weak, with the Bloomberg consensus currently standing at 0.1% for 2012 and 0.5% for 2013, compared with our forecasts of -0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.
* We remain bearish on the European building materials market as conditions for firms continue to deteriorate in light of ongoing eurozone austerity. The sovereign debt crisis, lower domestic demand from peripheral countries and tighter financing conditions are constraining our construction outlook for the region, and will continue to limit growth for the foreseeable future. Overcapacity, increasing production costs and falling sales volumes have hit the bottom lines of producers since 2009, and we see no immediate end to these phenomena. Notable exceptions to this trend are Russia and, to a lesser extent, Turkey and we expect these outperforming markets to sustain high levels of demand over the medium term.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- France Real Estate And Construction SWOT
- France Political SWOT
- France Economic SWOT
- France Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Real Estate Market Analysis - Office
- Supply And Demand
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2012 (EUR/m2 a month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms Of Rental Contracts/Leases, H112
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents (EUR/m2 a month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
Real Estate Market Analysis - Retail
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2012 (EUR/m2 a month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms Of Rental Contracts/Leases, H112
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents (EUR/m2 a month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
Real Estate Market Analysis - Industrial
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2012 (EUR/m2 a month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms Of Rental Contracts/Leases, H112
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents (EUR/m2 a month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)
Forecast Scenarios
- Infrastructure Report
- Table: France Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2009-2016
- Table: France Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: France - Economic Activity
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
- Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
- France's Business Environment
- Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
- Institutions
- Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
- Infrastructure
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Market Outlook
- Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations
- Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
- Bouygues Construction
- Eiffage
- Gecina SA
- Klepierre
- Lafarge
- Unibail-Rodamco
- VINCI
Demographic Data
- Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=529341&dt=t

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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