2013-03-16 11:14:25 - New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q2 2013"
BMI Ratings - Brief Methodology
The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo? Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political
risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?
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The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.
Business Environment Rating
The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Risk Ratings - Africa Tables
Chapter 1: Regional Outlook
Terrorism In The Sahel: A Threat Assessment
TABLE: REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
Growth In West Africa, But Stagnation In CEMAC
- The economies of Africa's two franc-denominated currency blocs are rapidly diverging, with growth picking up in West Africa while economic expansion slows in the oil-producing Central African states. While growth across the two zones will fall below that of many African peers, BMI believes that the West African economies of Cote d'Ivoire, Niger, and Burkina Faso will post robust growth over the coming years.
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Cote d'Ivoire
Reconciliation Unlikely In 2013
- While Cote d'Ivoire's economy continues to power ahead, political reconciliation in the sharply divided country is likely to remain stalled in 2013. Attacks on military bases in the capital have continued, and the recent arrest of several gendarmes highlights divisions within security forces. Even so, BMI retains the view that the tense security situation is unlikely to threaten the government's control over the country or substantially derail its economic recovery.
Long-Term Political Outlook
TABLE: CÔTE D'IVOIRE - POLITICAL OVERVIEW
The Long Road To Reunification
- Over the next 10 years, the primary political goals will be reducing endemic poverty, addressing identity politics and unifying administration of the country. The risk of rebellions and coup attempts will remain high for the foreseeable future.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Cote d'Ivoire
Growth To Stabilise Just Below 8.0%
- Economic growth in Cote d'Ivoire will average 7.6% between 2013 and 2017, but will not match the 8.4% that we are estimating for 2012. Real GDP growth in 2013 will fall to 7.5% due to base effects, and then subsequently trend upwards as the economy recovers from its 2010-2011 crisis. President Alassane Ouattara's ambitious investment plan will boost Cote d'Ivoire's economic recovery, but we believe that growth will fall below the government's goal of double-digit expansion.
TABLE: COTE D'IVOIRE - GDP BY EXPENDITURE
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Cote d'Ivoire
The Ivorian Economy To 2022
Political Risk Still Drags Growth Below Potential
- While growth over the next 10 years is expected to improve on the last decade, political uncertainty continues to exert a downward pull on the country's potential. In our view, high poverty levels and a frail business environment will represent the main obstacles to growth over the longer term.
TABLE: COTE D'IVOIRE LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 2.4: Business Environment - Cote d'Ivoire
Business Environment Outlook
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
TABLE: AFRICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Chapter 3: Country Reports
CEMAC: Monetary Policy
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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