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Now Available: Iran Infrastructure Report Q1 2014


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2013-12-04 03:16:26 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Iran Infrastructure Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

We currently maintain a short-term bearish outlook for the Iranian construction sector. Although official data has not yet been published, we estimate a contraction in the industry in both 2012 and 2013 at 1.6% and 1.0% respectively. This is the result of a challenging macroeconomic picture, international sanctions and a prohibitive business environment. We are, however, more optimistic over the medium-to-longer term as an improvement in economic conditions should bring some respite for the sector. As such, we expect moderate growth to return in 2014 at an estimated 1% in real terms and an average of 3.5% between 2015 and 2022.

The Islamic Republic remains a country of pronounced risks, including political instability, economic stagnation and social tensions, and we believe

the current situation is unsustainable over the long run. Despite a spike in oil prices, the latest wave of US energy sanctions and the EU oil embargo, coupled with a ban on London-issued insurance on oil tankers, has taken its toll on Iranian oil production, and consequently the economy at large. With its main avenue for earning foreign currency - oil represents half of the Iranian government's revenues, and accounts for an estimated 53% of the country's total exports - more or less depleted the government will be forced to cut back further on public spending.

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723470_iran_infrastructure_report_q1_2014.as ..

Key developments in the industry:

* A challenging macroeconomic backdrop will continue to weaken the outlook for Iran's construction sector over the coming quarters. Elevated inflation will also weigh on real industry growth -BMI forecasts inflation to average 35% year-on-year (y-o-y) in FY2013/14 - due to a weakening currency. The Central Bank undertook a de facto devaluation of the rial in July 2013 from IRR12,260/US $ to IRR24,779/US$. This will also have an adverse effect on the availability and cost of imported capital goods, exerting yet more pressure on company profit margins.
* Oil revenues account for a significant chunk of government income, estimated at 55% of total revenues in FY2011/2012. This percentage is expected to fall as a result of international sanctions and this will have an adverse impact on public spending on infrastructure.
* In terms of Teheran's nuclear programme, the latest developments point to a notable improvement in relations between Iran and the West. At the time of writing, further talks between the parties were being held and there were high expectations for a negotiated solution to move forward.
* With the exception of Russia and China, foreign interest in Iran's construction sector will remain limited, while constrained government finances, persistent project implementation issues and sluggish activity in the oil and gas sector will continue to constrain growth in industry value.
* We have seen progress on the US$450mn Iran to Iraq gas transmission pipeline. Completion was scheduled for July 2013 but the section in Iraq was delayed as a result of the unstable security situation and property issues. Despite political pressure from the US and the current sanctions imposed on Iran, we expect the project to be operational soon.
* In terms of maritime infrastructure, the Caspian Sea ports of Anzali and Amirabad, located in the north of Iran, are to undergo major capacity upgrades to double both their loading and unloading capabilities, according to the Head of the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO), Ata'ollah Sadr. The port of Anzali will increase its cargo-handling capacity from 8mn tonnes per year to 16mn tonnes. Amirabad, which is already Iran's largest Caspian Sea port, will go from a 5mn tonnes capacity to 10mn.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Infrastructure SWOT
Industry Forecast
- Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Table: Iran Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Iran Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2017-2022
- Key Trends And Developments In The Industry
- Transport Infrastructure � Outlook And Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Major Projects Table - Transport
- Energy And Utilities Infrastructure � Outlook And Overview
- Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
- Table: Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
- Residential/Non-Residential Building � Outlook And Overview
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Iran - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
- MENA - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: MENA Infrastructure Risk / Reward Ratings
Market Overview
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Iran EQS Data
Company Profile
- Iran Power Plant Projects Management Co. (Mapna)
Global Industry Overview
- Table: Latin America PPP Round-Up
Methodology
- Industry Forecast Methodology
- Sector Specific Methodology
- Risk Reward Rating Methodology
- Sector Specific Methodology
- Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Rating Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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