2012-09-04 09:02:26 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI View: The operational environment for drugmakers in Pakistan has worsened over the past year, partly as a result of the dissolution of the Ministry of Health (MoH) and the subsequent decentralisation of drug regulation. The recent drug contamination scandal in Punjab has renewed calls for the formation of an independent, centralised drug authority. Unless the matter is addressed adequately, multinational drugmakers will continue to struggle with cumbersome bureaucracy, which only serves to compound numerous unresolved existing intellectual property (IP) and market access issues.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: PKR171.20bn (US$1.98bn) in 2011 to PRK189.66bn (US$1.98bn) in 2012; +10.8% in local currency terms and +3.4% in US dollar terms. * * Healthcare: PKR361.13bn (US$4.18bn) in 2011 to PKR402.40bn (US$4.35bn) in 2012;

+11.4% in local currency terms and +4.0% in US dollar terms. * * Medical devices: PKR35.14bn (US$407mn) in 2011 to PKR40.58bn (US$439mn) in 2012; +15.5% in local currency terms and +7.8% in US dollar terms.


Full Report Details at
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Risk/Reward Ratings: In BMI's Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q412, Pakistan ranks in an improved 16th position, out of the 18 markets in the regional matrix. Pakistan ranks below the regional averages for both composite risk and reward figures, in spite of its large and growing population.

Key Trends & Developments

* In July 2012, the federal government approved 32 submissions for licensing to new drug companies. * * In June 2012, it was reported that the USAID had completed the renovation and expansion of the Government of Pakistan's central contraceptives warehouse in Karachi. Through this project, USAID will install computerized logistic networks in all 143 districts in 2012 to help prevent stock outs of medical commodities. It is expected that pilferage, leakages, rationing, and corruption will be minimized within the contraceptive supply chain as a result of these improvements. As part of this project, USAID also funds medical supplies and equipment for federal, provincial, and district governments throughout Pakistan.

BMI Economic View: The early release of the country's FY2011/12 (July-June) provisional national accounts, although susceptible to revision, showed the country rebounding strongly last fiscal year against our previous expectation of a continued slowdown from FY2010/11. Our scepticism regarding the state of the country's ongoing recovery has only been reinforced by the continued weakness of industrial production and export growth trends. Even though we expect the recovery to persist as domestic demand conditions continue to improve, we believe that the economy remains below par, and its outlook will be hampered by the government's fiscal mismanagement, the long-running energy crisis, and its substantial exposure to the EU.

BMI Political View: Relations between Pakistan and the US look set to normalise, following the November 26, 2011 NATO attack that created a significant rift between the two allies. In particular, we highlight the completion of Islamabad's US policy reboot - a significant stepping stone, bringing the country closer towards a constructive reengagement with Washington. Economic and military aid, the Afghanistan war's endgame, the geopolitics of South Asia, and Pakistani-Iranian energy cooperation remain at stake in the context of Pakistan-US ties.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Pakistan Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT
- Pakistan Political SWOT
- Pakistan Economic SWOT
- Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
- Rewards
- Risks
Pakistan - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
- Regulatory Developments
- Intellectual Property Regime
- IP Shortcomings
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
Industry Trends And Developments
- Epidemiology
- Healthcare System
- Healthcare Insurance
- Research And Development
- Clinical Trials
- Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
- Pharmaceutical Sector
- Barriers To Investment
- Investment Opportunities
- Table: 2008 Financial Snapshot Of Pakistani Drugmakers Listed On The Karachi Stock Exchange (US$mn)
- Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
- Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
- Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
- Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector
Company Monitor
- Local Manufacturers
- Searle Pakistan
- Hilton Pharma
- Efroze Chemical Industries
- Ferozsons Laboratories
- Getz Pharma
- Pacific Pharmaceuticals
- Leading Multinational Manufacturers
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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