2012-08-31 14:06:05 - Fast Market Research recommends "Peru Power Report Q3 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: In the face of rising energy consumption, the Peruvian government has taken a number of steps to ensure the country has adequate power generation capabilities. At least three new thermal power plants are expected to become operational in the coming quarters and a number of new hydroelectric plants will come online between 2015 and 2016. That said, we highlight that there are still some risks to our more optimistic outlook for the sector, including a high level of regional differentiation in power generating capacity and the potential for local opposition to cause delays to hydroelectric projects.

Between 2012 and 2016 we forecast that electricity consumption in Peru will grow by a steady 5.3%, driven primarily by the country's rapidly

expanding mining sector. In order to ensure that production is sufficient to keep up with the rising demand, the government announced plans in March 2012 to increase thermal and hydroelectric power generation, bringing online an additional 4.3 gigawatts (GW) by 2016.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451344_peru_power_report_q3_2012.aspx


In the short term, additional thermal power stations will drive the increase in generational capacity, with two plants scheduled to be operational by end-2012 and a third, Santa Domingo de los Olleros, expected to be completed by Q313. Meanwhile, toward the latter part of our forecast period, a number of largescale hydroelectric projects are expected to be completed. Finally, while we expect non-hydroelectric renewable power generation capacity to grow robustly, we highlight that it is coming up from a very low base, accounting for only 1.5% of total power generation in 2011. As such, it will have a rather limited impact on the country's total power generation capacity. Overall, we forecast that Peru's power generational will grow by an annual average of 5.3% over our medium-term forecast period, from 39.1 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012 to 48.4TWh by 2016, before rising to 62.3TWh by 2021.

While this additional generation capacity should suffice to meet growing consumption patterns, Peru's power sector still faces a number of shortcomings. First, we note that power projects often face considerable hostility from locals. Since his July 2011 inauguration, President Ollanta Humala has attempted to strike a balance between encouraging greater foreign investment into the power sector and catering to the wishes of the country's rural population. However, we have already seen the Inambari plant stalled, as well as Brazilian firm Odebrecht announce that it was abandoning a feasibility study for a hydroelectric plant because of local objections. As such, despite President Humala's efforts, we do not expect any end to domestic social conflicts of this nature in the near future, weighing modestly on our projections for Peru's hydroelectric power growth. Second, we note that while the country as a whole is not set to face significant generation shortages, there is a great deal of regional differentiation in power production capacity. While the centre of the country has surplus capacity, the south, which has seen substantial growth in recent years, is currently only producing about half the power it requires. With increased transmission congestion at peak times, outages are still a problem in the region, and this is likely to continue to be the case in the short term.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Peru Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Peru Snapshot (Macro)
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Peru Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Peru Total Electricity Generation - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Peru Total Electricity Generation - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Table: Peru Electricity Generating Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Peru Electricity Generating - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Peru Total Electricity Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Peru Total Electricity Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Peru Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Peru Electric Power Transmission And Distribution - Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
- Table: Peru - Historical Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
- Table: Peru - Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Key Projects Database
- Major Projects Table
- Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Latin America Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100
- Peru Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
Competitive Landscape
- Electroperu
- Endesa/Edegel
- Duke/Egenor
- GdF/Enersur
- EGE San Gaban
- Perenesa
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
- Sources

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